BUY
Balanced ETFs for a long-term hold?

VBAL and XBAL are great, one-stop shops for smaller accounts. Leave it and forget it. Typically has about 40% fixed income, which would have had a tough run up till about a year ago. 

VBAL costs about 25 bps for the MER, XBAL costs about 20 bps. VBAL is 41% Canadian content, XBAL is about 45%. XBAL has outperformed for the last 3 and 5 years.

HOLD

Trending higher above the 200-day MA, which itself is moving higher. Watch it in terms of how far the valuation goes. Right now, 15x forward earnings with about a 13% growth rate for 2025, 29% for 2026. Valuation is actually not as expensive as a lot of other tech names, especially in the US. Valuation and technicals look decent.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Still likes it, beating all other streamers. One of the cheaper mega-cap stocks at just over 1x PEG. Brand-new high today. Getting closer to overbought in terms of technicals. You could try to add at the 50-day MA around $680-90; if you're really lucky, get it at the 200-day MA around $620. Ad revenue is helping on top and bottom lines.

DON'T BUY

Companion pets are a big thing. Growing need for protein from livestock. Above 200-day MA, but that's moving sideways. Trendlines are not fantastic. Trading at 31x, with 10% growth rate, PEG of 3, a bit expensive.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

CCO is about 22% of the portfolio. Generally likes the sector. Rising demand for clean energy in most places around the world. Supply constraints, due to years of under-investment. Increasing government support. Some of the underlying names are getting pricey, look for a correction. Paying 99 bps for HURA. US version, URA, is a bit cheaper.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

CCO is about 22% of the portfolio. Generally likes the sector. Rising demand for clean energy in most places around the world. Supply constraints, due to years of under-investment. Increasing government support. Some of the underlying names are getting pricey, look for a correction. Paying 99 bps for HURA. US version, URA, is a bit cheaper.

DON'T BUY

Designs chips, makes blueprints, and licenses technologies. Other companies actually produce. Lots of devices, especially mobile, use their tech. Trades at 90x forward PE, 24-25% growth rate. Trades at 37x price to sales. Bit rich for him.

COMMENT
Tech exposure -- lightening up or being more selective?

Getting very selective. He's trimming as things have gone up, but not exactly lightening up.

DON'T BUY

Technically tough times, trending lower with a falling 200-day MA. Stock price is also below 200-day MA. Those technical points keep him away. Interest rates coming down have helped, so it's off its lows. Yield is 8.8%, have to see if it remains secure.

COMMENT
Canadian tech -- good value, cashflow, and dividends, yet it lags.

Tech sector in Canada is limited to a few names such as SHOP. When institutional money moves, it's going to go to the mega-cap names in the States. Names like CLS and OTEX are not that well known around the world. Canadian tech stocks have done well, but not as well as those in the US, and it's just due to flow of funds.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 16/23, Up 41%)

Still likes it. Valuation still pretty decent, under 1x PEG. Gorilla in e-commerce, enjoys scale unlike any other. Shifting to higher-margin segments like advertising and cloud. Consumers might shift down to necessities, so e-commerce margins might be lower over the holiday season. Prime memberships continue to grow. 30-35% earnings growth projections over next few years. Good value.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 16/23, Up 25.15%)All-time highs.

Likes it still. Long-term, secular growth in digital payments. Cyclical growth due to cross-border travel and e-commerce. About 15% earnings growth rate. Technicals continue to look good. May benefit from DOJ action against Visa.

Retail sales are hitting new highs, despite worries about consumer turning over. Interest rates moving lower is a benefit to the consumer and, therefore, to a name like MA.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 16/23, Up 17.75%)Rolled over more than 20% since summer peak. LLY has held in so much better.

Bit of concern over sales from Wegovy. Long-term aspects of this name speak to global demographic trends. Aging population, rising obesity rates. These same drugs are used to treat other conditions as well. Still sees 30% growth rate in the weight-loss-treatment industry, and 25% earnings growth rate from NVO. He'd add here.

He holds LLY as well, so he's doing OK ;)

WAIT

Long term, there's secular growth in the agriculture industry. Less arable land around the world, so farmers need more inputs for the land. Stock's fallen since 2022, 200-day MA has turned, and stock's below that. Commodity prices, such as for corn and soybeans, have fallen; not conducive to farmers spending on crops.

Commodities are super-cyclical, tend to move in 10-year cycles. Watch and wait for the turnaround.

SELL

He took profits and switched to CRWD on its weakness. Really likes the space; attacks are only going to get more plentiful and more challenging. It's more expensive for companies to suffer attacks than to pay a company for cybersecurity. Looks decent technically, wants to see profits. If it corrects nicely, he'd look at it again.