September will definitely be volatile, through October in the U.S. election. She has some cash after taking some gains tech. A rate cut cycle is coming and we got through Nvidia, whose report was good, and the economy is good (decent GDP number and real income) to set up decent earnings. Will buy any dips.
They had a wonderful earnings call yesterday. Their torrid growth won't last forever, but it's the best performer of the last 2 years. With CEO Huang at the helm for so long, NVDA will continue to run far. NVDA is over-discussed though. Don't sell it. They keep executing in revenues and sales, raising guidance.
MDT is a mature MedTech company that is now trading at a 15.9x Forward P/E. Over the last few years, MDT’s valuation has ranged from 13.4x to 22.8x Forward P/E, we think the current valuation is fairly attractive. MDT’s share price has performed well recently due to a combination of 1) investors moving to defensive sectors with stable cash flows 2) MDT reported very solid earnings with a 5.3% organic growth rate.
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DG dropped significantly after the earnings release and is now trading at 11.8x Forward P/E, a record low compared to historical averages. The reason for the sharp drawdown was mainly due to weak operating results and a downward revision in guidance. In the 2Q, DG’s revenue grew 4% to $10.2B, missing estimates of $10.37B and EPS of $1.7 also missed estimates of $1.79. DG revised guidance in same-store sales down, which is expected to be between 1%-1.6%, a reduction from 2%-2.7% that DG previously forecasted. The company mentioned the weak results were largely due to financially constrained customers, however, both WMT and TGT reported solid numbers a few weeks ago. The balance sheet is leveraged with a net debt/EBITDA of 3.0x, which DG is paying down gradually. DG brought back the old CEO with the hopes that he could turn around the company’s operations, which have decelerated meaningfully in recent years. Overall, a very weak earnings result - we think investors are better off looking somewhere else until DG demonstrates a path to recovery.
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PXT EPS was $4.32, vs estimates $4.19; revenue of $1.17B missed estimates of $1.26B. But production guidance was lowered. Parex's disappointing operational performance again in 2Q was caused by flooding at LLA-34 and lower-than-expected results at Arauca. Still, solid financial results suggest free-cash-flow momentum may extend into 2H amid a constructive oil price backdrop. Suppressed 1H volume indicates full-year production may be at or below the low end of guidance of 54,000-60,000 barrels a day, amid an operational halt at Arauca. Climbing operating cash should cover capital outlays, which will likely be at the lower end of $390-$430 million range this year. A 32% surge in 2Q free cash underscores Parex's cash-generative profile and should accommodate its annual dividend payout of $115 million (8% yield), suggesting scope for share buybacks in 3Q. But the CFO resignation adds uncertainty, and investors will probably start questioning the dividend. The stock is VERY cheap, but it was cheap three months ago as well. Operational performance needs to improve. We think, while it is generally OK due to the revised valuation and balance sheet, buyers can wait for this to shake out some more.
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Company Highlight: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) operates as one of the largest railroad companies in the US. The business model is very similar to CNR, aside from one drawback that UNP’s shipment volume growth over the years has not been as strong as CNR.
The rail industry is largely mature, with the growth algorithm to be in the range of 1%-2% in volume and 3%-5% in pricing. The industry has been in consolidation mode for years, and operational efficiency has been the key lever to create shareholder value. That being said, the business has tremendously strong staying power, and investors can comfortably own UNP for decades without worrying too much about technological disruption. Additionally, the company has a track record of consistently growing dividends over time was quite impressive, 10-year dividend growth was around 11% on average. In addition, UNP bought back around 32% of the total share outstanding in the last ten years.
Looking at its financials, we see its valuation over the past 10 years has been consistent, this is largely because UNP is perceived as a low-risk, cash cow type of company. There is some cyclicality to its earnings due to the inherent cyclicality of the rail business which is sensitive to the macro environment.
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It was down yesterday post-earnings only because expectations were so high. There's nothing wrong with NVDA. Demand from hyperscalers is up 40% this year. NVDA was up 151% before the report, which was good as was guidance.