COMMENT
Despite inflation's recent surprise to the upside, are we still on a path to rate cuts?

Short term, he has no idea. But there's no question in his mind that central bankers are being so careful, that they'll keep rates high as long as they have to to slay the beast of inflation. Even if that takes another 6 months to a year, so be it. But at some point, consumers will suffer with high interest rates and things will slow down. 

This might be a next-year story, but that's not very far off in the investment world.

DON'T BUY

Spun off a few divisions over the years, running out of divisions to spin out. Nothing wrong with the company, there's just better value elsewhere.

SELL

He sold. Problems with CPAP machines, have since been settled. Slow growth, struggling on a number of fronts. Still in restructuring mode. Look elsewhere.

COMMENT
Asset allocation.

Very focused on where to find value. Canadian market has lagged badly for many years. Partly because we don't have large-cap tech stocks. As well, we're completely out of favour because of low productivity, and currency's been weak. For him, that's an opportunity. 

He recommends that Canadian investors have a solid weighting to Canada. The bulk of his global stocks are in the US, but he does have a number of stocks in Europe and Japan. He's not in EMs. Always very value focused.

He started in this business in 1989. The US market was about 30% of the MSCI world index. Today it's about 70%. Just goes to show that there are so many good companies elsewhere that have been totally ignored. With so much money flowing into US ETFs, etc., it's leaving some of these companies stranded and trading at crazy valuations.

HOLD
Melting down to lowest level since pandemic.

A bit cleaner financial shape than BCE. Dividend secure. Tough regulator, and the whole sector's looking for some relief. Sit with it and collect the dividend. If we haven't bottomed out, we're probably pretty close. Yield is 7.5%.

Looking ahead 5 years you'll have collected a good dividend, probably gotten some growth out of the stock, and there's your double-digit return. 

DON'T BUY
The Street is bullish; price target suggests a double from here.

Not a great investment for many years. Airlines, in general, are a tough business. Huge fixed costs, Boeing issues are restraining capacity. Possible short-term benefit if WestJet mechanics strike, until the strike is settled. 

One of his criteria is the balance sheet. High-yield bond issuer. Still has a fair bit of debt. When he goes to work every day, he has his 5 biggest investment mistakes sitting on his desk -- the common theme was that they each had too much debt.

WATCH

More-or-less recession proof due to long-term contracts. Government contracts wax and wane over time, but CGI is a major player. Stock's not cheap. If it got cheaper, he'd happily look at it. Spectacular management for 25 years. Great company.

HOLD
Buy this instead of NVDA?

Makes NVDA's chips. Building massive plant in Arizona, got $$ from Biden administration. Great growth ahead, driven by AI chips. Building new capacity, which will be completely sold out over the next few years. Less upside and downside than NVDA, as they make chips for a diversified group.

Two completely different companies. NVDA is the creative genius leading the way in AI, whereas TSM makes the chips. 

DON'T BUY

NVDA is the creative genius leading the way in AI. Valuation is priced for perfection. Wouldn't buy it now. (Heed the warning from MU, where earnings took just a bit of a dip and the stock went down.)

BUY

The ugly is the issue with money laundering, which stemmed from lax internal controls, will end up paying a nasty fine. Should have reasonable growth after that. Things will return to normal in a few years, and you'll own a rock-solid company. Two years ago, it was the best bank in Canada.

Will be blocked from making acquisitions for a while, which could preclude management's overpaying for something. Hefty dividend. Remains a spectacular retail bank. Always take the long view.

DON'T BUY

Aggressive acquisition hunt for the last decade. Tough to be an independent in Canada, as Canadian banks control so much of net worth. He'd rather own the banks with their broader diversification. Warren Buffet says "A lousy industry will beat great management every time."

DON'T BUY

Not a huge fan. Reasonably well managed. Slowdown in EV buying, just as it's been ramping up its EV production. The field is getting crowded, and Chinese makers have the cost advantage. These factories take so many 10s of billions of dollars of investment, so if you don't get demand in a reasonable time, EPS suffers.

Auto companies haven't been great investments over the long haul.

DON'T BUY
For the dividend and its push into oncology?

Look at the 30-year chart. Stock's around the same price today as then, despite the 10s of billions in acquisitions over the years. Partly speaks to industry conditions, partly to lack of blockbuster drugs. Dividend secure. Terrible investment for decades. Yield is 6%.

COMMENT
Catch-22 for pharma.

Pharma can't raise drug prices the way they used to. We're all going to suffer, because if these companies can't spend the money on R&D and get a return, they're going to have less money to spend on R&D. It's hurt the industry.

Always possible that a company will come out with a world-changing drug like Ozempic, but he'd never invest on that basis.

WATCH
Down from Covid peak.

Hardware. Massive growth during Covid, then growth softened. Margins have also suffered somewhat. No debt. Rock solid. It's just not cheap enough.