Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!
Today, The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether HHL-T, HXS-T, ATH-T, SIS-T, LDOS-N, CHWY-N are stocks to buy or sell.
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A month ago, this defense company reported total revenues of $3.98 billion which beat the street's $3.8 billion and rose 4.2% year-over-year as operating income climbed from $265 million to $415 million (all USD) in that time. The operating margin expanded from 7.2% to 10.4% as total incomes declined 9.3%. The future looks positive with a backlog of $36.57 billion. To cap it off, the company raised its full-year earnings guidance from $7.50-7.90 to $8.40-8.80 per share and cash flow from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion. After Leidos reported this beat, the stock and made fresh 52-week highs in the weeks that followed. It's come back a bit which makes it an attractive entry point.
Quietly rising 17% since the year started, this Quebec manufacturer of in-home lifts serves an aging demographic. One thing to note is its EPS growth: up 8.1% annually since 2021. In the last year, revenue grew 2.2% to $835 million. Insider have been buying shares (always a good sign) and now hold 20% of the company. The icing on the cake is SIS' dividend, which has more than doubled in the past decade and now pays just under 3%. This trend should continue, based on management projections of revenue growth to top $1 billion next year. Last year, the company enjoyed a record backlog as well.
Believes interest rate cuts might be on the table from the Bank of Canada (mortgage situation much more fragile). Strong labor markets & sticky inflation not pointing towards US Fed rate cuts. Not until consumers start to weaken will this option be on the table. US Federal Reserve debt load is spiraling out of control - makes rate cuts and/or raises very complex. Currency situation would suggest Canadian Dollar is heading down.
Believes Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates this week. Canadian housing market is fragile due to 5 year mortgage rates, which would add incentive to cut rates. Canadian consumers much more vulnerable than in the USA. Canadian economic policy poor - reason for economic weakness, and further reason to cut interest rates. Canadian dollar will dip to ~$0.70 before any recovery in Canadian economy.
PZA has had a slight downturn over the past few months driven by concerns on fourth quarter results. Q4 highlighted slower same-store sales growth at 4% for the quarter compared to 13% in the same period a year prior. This prompted the initial dip, and Q1 results displayed a similar trend. Same-store sales growth in Q1 of 2024 was 1.7%, down from 13.6% in the same period a year prior. Sales growth concerns are the primary diver behind some of the stocks recent weakness.
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Many investors are ignoring emerging markets, and this in itself creates potential. They are very cheap vs historical levels. Much of the pain has come from a strong US dollar. When US interest rates come down this might be the catalyst needed. But we would expect heightened volatility for sure around the US election. It comes down to confidence. If US investors are confident, they will move some money to other countries. A strong US economy can 'pull' others along as well. The current 'the US is the only alternative' mentality may last longer, but we don't think it lasts forever. Thus, we think small exposure internationally still makes good sense overall.
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We would say CAE's major competitors are other large aerospace/defense players who all have some varying degree of involvement in the aircraft simulation space. Companies like LHX, LMT, BA, and GD all have varying involvements in the simulations space. We think CAE's moat is still wide as the civil business has been strong over the long-term. The obvious mistake that can be point towards is the acquisition of the defense segment which has mainly created problems. The company has struggled to clear legacy contracts associated with this segment off its books for a while now causing margin pressure. Once the legacy contracts are cleared, CAE should see nice growth and margin improvements in defence but management stated that this could take six-to-eight quarters to occur in recent earnings. This was the major reason for removing CAE from the model portfolios. Additionally, in our flash report from Feb 2023 we noted its outlook was quite strong, but in our most recent report, guidance on margins started to wane, and this caused us to take a more cautious approach. Selling CAE also provided us with the opportunity to reduce our already high exposure to industrials and add to a smaller sector exposure, materials
At the time of report writing we felt a B+ was still warranted on the strength of the civil segement and that the defense segement had room for improvement this year. In light of recent earnings, we would like to see how defense performs this year and a potential downgrade is on the table.
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Market Update:
Oil prices turn volatile as the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) plan to extend production cuts voluntarily to stabilize oil prices. On the other hand, Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the first quarter, weaker than expected by most economists at 2.2%, raising the odds for a rate cut in June. The Canadian dollar was 73.14 cents USD. The U.S. S&P500 ended the week down 1.7%, while the TSX was down 0.7%.
Most sectors ended the week in red. Industrials gave up 2.5%, while real estate slid 2.1%. Consumer staples and technology edged lower by 1.2% each, while financials slipped 0.9% and consumer discretionary went down 0.7%. Energy and materials ended the week up 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively. The most heavily traded shares by volume were Lucara Diamond, Suncor Energy, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
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Once a dog, this American pet food maker is a comeback after reporting Q1 results. Shares jumped 30% after the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15, which blew away street estimates by 291%. Meanwhile, revenues of US$2.9 billion (all USD)were in line. Net income more than tripled from a year ago to $67.3 million, or $0.15 per share while gross margins climbed 130 basis points to 29.7% and net margins increased 150 basis points to 2.3%. Growth has moderated, but profits are now consistent and growing. Analysts were impressed enough to raise Chewy's price target rose by 8.4% to US$25.12. So, how did the company beat the post-Covid slump? One step was recently opening Chewy Vet Care clinics, targeting younger, tech-savvy pet owners, who can see their pet's medical information displayed on interactive screens in the exam room but also access that data on their portable devices. This cohort of Millennials and GenZ'ers make up 46% of pet owners in the U.S., so penetrating this market through the clinics is a savvy move.