Today, The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) and Christine Poole commented about whether SPGI-N, MDLZ-Q, FTS-T, CTC.A-T, STN-T, SU-T, BIP.UN-T, LULU-Q, PPL-T, ENB-T, TRP-T, ATZ-T, DLTR-Q, BCE-T, GOOG-Q, NA-T, QCOM-Q, SHOP-T, BEP.UN-T, NPI-T, NVST-N, MRK-N, PFE-N, WSP-T, ARE-T, MRNA-Q, MU-Q, CVE-T, CPG-T, EQT-N, WOR-N, CRBG-N, ATD-T, ACQ-T are stocks to buy or sell.
We know the economy's slowing. In Canada, Q2 GDP was down 0.2%. The US came in much better at 2.1%. The consumer's held up relatively well, especially the US consumer. They were drawing on savings that were built up during the pandemic. Most of those savings are gone now. The savings rate is actually back down below, yet credit card debt is higher than, pre-pandemic levels. Also, lines of credit are going back up. Delinquencies have been slowly going up, though not yet at the level that spells trouble.
What all this tells her is that going forward, household spending will rely much more on employment and interest rates. From yesterday, Fed Chair Powell implied that rates will stay higher for longer, and the market's reacting to that.
But the positive side is Powell suggesting that a soft landing is still possible, given that the economy's holding up much better.
Eventually the economy will slow to the point where central banks have to start cutting. Consensus expectations are that that point will be well into next year. In Canada, the ratio of debt to disposable income is much higher than it is in the States, so our economy is much more sensitive to higher interest rates.
Canada has variable rate mortgages, but they aren't really sold in the US where fixed rate is the norm. As rates stay higher for longer, and those mortgages need to reset, that's going to impact households. Unfortunately, CPI in Canada is trending the wrong way, so the BOC has a dilemma as to what to do on the next rate decision.
Benefitted from Covid vaccines. Patent expirations in a couple of years. How will they continue to grow? Company is confident in acquisitions and internal R&D. She's looking at it, no decision yet. Cheap multiple, attractive yield. More of a deep value play.
MRK's done relatively better. Drugs going off patent also, but pipeline is a bit better. She's looking at this one too, still assessing.
Benefitted from Covid vaccines. Patent expirations in a couple of years. How will they continue to grow? Company is confident in acquisitions and internal R&D. She's looking at it, no decision yet. Cheap multiple, attractive yield. More of a deep value play.
MRK's done relatively better. Drugs going off patent also, but pipeline is a bit better. She's looking at this one too, still assessing.
ACQ, who holds 65 auto locations and has over 15,000 vehicles in inventory, is reiterated as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings showed a 30% increase in EPS. Cash reserves are being prudently used to aggressively retire debt. It trades at 7x earnings, 1.2x book and supports a 21% ROE. We continue to recommend a stop at $21, looking to achieve $31 -- upside potential of 24%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $31.50)