COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The Market is Not the Economy.

One of the common refrains we are hearing is that the economy is/will be in such poor condition, how can markets be doing so well? Corollary to this is that, ‘markets have clearly run too high and are set to crash when reality sets in’. A lot of this also hinges on the idea that the market is ‘dumb’ and the critic is ‘smart’. Time and again though, we have learned that it is dangerous ground to attack markets with the presumption that the entire market is wrong and you are right. The moral of the story is to do your own research when deciding which stocks to invest in. Don't just rely on sound bite news that is often wrong. 

DON'T BUY

She was the world's greatest stockpicker in 2020 when tech ruled. Not so these days. Why? Her portfolio lacks diversification, concentrated in only a few names.

BUY

In complete opposite to ARKK, BLK is highly diversified which lowers your risk and protects your capital.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Up 99% in the past 6 months. It keeps going up and he can't get in. Are they the next Home Depot or Lowes?

SELL

Down 20% in the last 6 months. Their problem is that they are the ultimate brick-and-mortar company at a time when Amazon is crushing their performance.

BUY

A holding company consisting of 13 contractors who are focused on electrical construction. Services include installing electrical wiring in commercial buildings and rail systems in the US and Canada. Over the last 3 years, shares have soared 341% due to super earnings growth despite a dip last year. A tailwind in the federal infrastructure bill; they have a good chance winning such contracts. The increase in solar panels, renewable infrastructure and data centers is a benefit, because those industries need miles of wiring. They beat last February and May with large upside surprises. More room to run. The street expects $5.78 EPS this year and $6.87 in 2024. It trades at only 21x PE 2024, which looks good. He wishes he had heard of them sooner.

RISKY

It has more than tripled though remains down over 30% from its late-2020 peak. Generative AI is a huge boost for them which is why shares have caught fire. Last year they turned a profit and this year their profits should double. The valuation is huge, but the street predicts it will become the King of the Cloud.

BUY

Is up nearly 190% from its lows, still 61% below is 2021 peak. Is profitable and has tremendous earnings growth in coming years.

BUY

On track to have their first profitable year in 2023. Free cash flow is on track to be up 700% though from a very low number. Passes the rule of 40 test, where revenue growth + free cash flow margin passes 40.

BUY

A junior Salesforce that's turned a profit since 2017. Earnings growth was 38% in 2021 and 53% in 2022 and projected to be 74% in 2023. Revenue growth is actually decelerating to 20% this year. Shares are still soaring.

BUY

Is up 60% in the last 3 months. PayPal and Robinhood keep going up, so SOFI can also go up more by 25-30%.

WEAK BUY

Was showing life today and moving up. Shares fell before due to strong competition which slashed their margins and slowed growth. Shares have bottomed. The current rally is not over.

BUY
Why are travel and airline names still below pre-Covid levels?

Their balance sheets, but these companies are working through that. Delta is his pick here.

COMMENT
Apple is a large holding in a portfolio and shares have run up this year. Trim?

A tough call, because he always says buy Apple and don't trade it. But it's important to have portfolio discipline, so yes trim your holding if it is large.

PARTIAL SELL
oil outlook

Is bearish because Russia will keep selling deceitfully its oil around the world to fund its Ukraine war. Given this, he trimmed HAL.