RISKY

The engineering and construction sector has really been impacted by cost inflation. Lots of problems with fixed-price contracts, will take time to go through the system, and so the repricing cycle is longer. Be cautious. Layer in, don't weight over 5%. You don't want to be all in if sentiment is going to tick down.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 16/22, Up 14%)

Exceptionally well run. Amazing digital capabilities. China is an unpenetrated market. Negatively affected by sentiment, and that's when you want to take advantage. Still holds, and would be willing to buy today.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 16/22, Down 3%)

Inexpensive at 9-10x earnings. Fantastic dividend yield, almost 6%. Peers are pursuing EMs. GWO is doing the opposite, focusing on mature markets. Very well run. Conservative, nice total return.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 16/22, Up 4%)

Went down with tech last year. Debt-free balance sheet, over $200M in cash, at a time when tech's been washed out. Acquisition activity and share buybacks ramping up. Still undervalued. FCF yield around 5.5%. He'd buy today.

DON'T BUY

View on uranium has totally changed over the last couple of years. Energy transition is very difficult to do without something like uranium. Spot pricing probably less volatile than oil or gas. From time to time, disappoints on the quarter. Westinghouse servicing component gives them more vertical integration and cashflow stability, lowers risk profile. Go-to name, but valuation has come up so he's leery.

DON'T BUY

Well run. Wonderful growth company, but too rich. 40-50x earnings, 1% FCF yield. The most cutting-edge and complicated chips. AI arms race needs sophisticated chips, and this plays well for them. Big in data centres, gaming, and AI. Consider TSM instead with a more reasonable valuation, better diversified.

BUY

Reasonable valuation, better diversified than NVDA. 4% FCF yield, trading at 17x earnings.

DON'T BUY

Avoid. Operating, earnings, and cashflow not tremendously strong. Competitive threat from all the other manufacturers over the next 10-15 years. Unique ability to rewrite code on chips during pandemic. Valuation risk. Price cuts alienated customers.

DON'T BUY

Upheaval in the auto industry. Combustion transition to EV is massively expensive. Probably won't have free cashflow for the next decade. Massive spend to stay relevant is a huge negative. Look for a more stable earnings profile.

DON'T BUY
Will it fall 30%?

Industry structure is favourable, as there are only 2 manufacturers. High profitability. Jury still out. Difficult to guess whether it will fall, anything can go down. He really likes RTX, as you get aerospace and defense, counter-cyclical business. 

BUY

Really likes it, as you get aerospace and defense, counter-cyclical business. He'd be comfortable buying at current prices.

TOP PICK

Down 40% last few months. Rough Q3. Higher interest rates and taxes. Earnings profile should stabilize. Inexpensive valuation compared to peers. Good assets. Don't just toss it, as you're giving up too much value. 12x earnings. Window of opportunity to turn things around. Whether Kentucky Power goes through or not, positive either way. Reasonable path to $15 over the next 2-3 years. Yield is 5.87%.

(Analysts’ price target is $11.49)
TOP PICK

Very undervalued. Strong recent quarterly results, plan to cut costs. Costs had been a big overhang. Business is performing well. Path to increasing profitability is there. 

TOP PICK

Unique healthcare exposure. Retail pharmacy, PBM, health insurer. Recent acquisition of primary care network. Vertically integrated, synergies across the platform. Inexpensive at 10x earnings, 8% FCF yield. Regulatory reform is an overhang. Covid proved how essential it is. Yield is 2.74%.

(Analysts’ price target is $113.30)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

Stock was $3.70-ish prior to the rumour/confirmation of the strategic review. 
The tech world has changed to the positive since then, fairly dramatically. 
But the recent miss needs to be taken into account as well. 
Plus, we need to believe management that the three big deals are on their way. 
Currently 13X earnings, we think a proper multiple without all this 'noise' would be in the 17 to 18X range. 
So assuming growth, and using forward consensus estimates, that gets us to $8.28, so on a present value discounted basis about $7.50 with no control premium applied.  
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