The U.S. 10-year yield has fallen from 3.45% to 2.57%. The curve gets more inverted by the day; history indicates a recession, bot how severe will it be? There was weaker data out of China and the ISM today. We need to see more U.S. economic weakness for the Fed to pause--which he doesn't expect nor want.
This has been grinding at current levels since February and hasn't challenged their 100-day moving average in 1.5 years. Yes, he gets that they're at a strategic crossroads between e-commerce and social media--and it's an interesting position--but it hasn't paid off.
He read hawkish tones in last week's Fed announcement, not dovish. Even if the next CPI comes down, it's still historically higher. The market will go lower. The effects of the Fed hikes won't be felt for some time, many months.
Shares are bouncing today after Beoing got FDA approval to resume producing their 787. But shares are still in a significant downturn from March 2019. This has room to rise to $185, but that's when you pull the ripcord.
Last week, the Fed was hawkish and they're nowhere near done--inflation has to fall a lot. The Fed will hike more. Housing has cooled and other sectors will. She isn't buying this rally. There's more pain to come. For some stocks, the bottom is in, but not the overall market.
Activist Elliott Mgt. buying a huge position is a strong endorsement of the new CEO. The CEO has raised forward guidance out there and he must be very confident to do that. This is impressive for a new CEO to do this.
Reported after hours a mixed quarter, but positive guidance. They hold A-list malls. Occupancy is 93.9% vs. 91.8%--great. EPS beat, but revenues missed. They were on death's door two years ago but have come back impressively. The quarter was better than she expected.
The market thought the Fed pivoted, so the market rallied. But what happens if the Fed doesn't engineer a slowdown? Well, they will slam on the brakes by hiking rates hard. The Fed has burst some bubbles, like cryptos, but more need to be burst. He bought bonds for the short-term. TLT is probably the place to be.
Just reported their quarter, mostly positive The quarter is a read on the economy. They increased their dividend, boast 94% occupancy, their retail stores are seeing strong demand. Is this as good as it gets for SPG in this economy? He would take profits.