COMMENT
What's attracting your attention? Inflation and what the Fed is doing and saying. We're in a US mid-term election year. His research going back to the 1950s shows that markets tend to trade off badly early in the year, but every time they rally sharply off those lows a year later. See the "Goodreid Guage" under "Insights" on his website, goodreid.com. During times of Fed rate hikes, markets actually go up. Sentiment is so overwhelmingly negative right now. You need to step back and clear your mind. Not a Pollyanna approach, but know that there are many possible outcomes from the current environment, and the mainstream ones are not always the ones that come to pass.
Unknown
COMMENT
Recession? Recessions happen. They come in different shapes and sizes. There have been about a dozen since the end of WW2. They're not terminal. They're actually the beginning of something. TGT and WMT clearing inventory is deflationary, not inflationary. A recession creates many great opportunities, and he's seeing these.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Does a lot of financing for tech enterprises. Volatile. Well capitalized and well run. Capital markets are boom and bust, and they've ground to a halt in 2022. Private equity repricing is putting a damper on risk assets. Higher beta. He'd rather go with JPM or BAC.
0
WAIT
Not the old Dow. Specialty chemicals. Well capitalized, nice dividend, good free cashflow. Cyclical. Risk-on right now. Nothing against the company itself.
chemicals
COMMENT
Investing when stocks are falling. There's no doubt we're in a downturn. Question is how deep does it go? Investors have to be careful about valuations. A low PE might have the E at risk. Do I have a quality company that can sustain itself through an attack on revenues and earnings? How does it come out on the other end? Are there secular forces that will allow it to do much better? This homework will tell you whether a stock is yea or nay for your portfolio. Investing is done in years and cycles, not days/weeks/months.
Unknown
STRONG BUY
Highly bullish on it. Strong long-term, secular demand for copper for electrification. Doing well cyclically, healthy price of copper. A money machine with current price of copper. Impeccable balance sheet. Should see it increase dividend and buy back shares.
non-base metal mining
BUY on WEAKNESS
Valuation in mid-30s has always been outside his comfort zone. One misstep creates a lot of air beneath it. Great model, as 90% of earnings come from membership fees. He'd buy on a lower multiple. Confidence in long-term leadership.
department stores