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COMMENT
Momentum in tech stocks now? There are fundamental and technical criteria, but these days they're taking a back seat to momentum and stimulus. Massive miss by payrolls last Friday, but markets seem to ignore these events. S&P 500 has broken above resistance and tech has upward momentum long-term, but not in an excited way. Large caps are in overbought territory. He'd rather wait for some mean reversion before putting new money to work. He's just over 92% invested, with a 64% short equity hedge to protect on the downside. So, if the market were to drop 3-7%, he'd lose a bit but not as much as the market. If it goes beyond the 7% downdraft, his portfolio starts to make money. For example in March 2020, he came out with just over 8% rise in NAV.
Unknown
COMMENT
Undervalued areas. In some of the unliked stocks. But, because there's so much money sloshing around, large caps are ruling the roost right now. FANG stocks keep going up because they have the liquidity on the upside and the downside. This year has been more of a trading arena in the tech sector. When stocks reach their price targets, he takes money off the table and goes back to his shopping list. There's tremendous upside in the Chinese tech arena, but he's stayed away because of the political risk. Every 2-4 years, the Chinese government comes in and flexes some muscle to remind everyone that they're driving the bus. When you get wind of that, best to get out of the way until the dust settles.
Unknown
BUY on WEAKNESS
Price target of $13.11. Business called Themes that's involved in the Shopify Unite ecosystem, and this negatively impacted the revenue. This is temporary. Shopify made changes, and momentum returned. Their other businesses have performed well. M&A pipeline, new CEO. Profile looks relatively strong. He'd buy if it got closer to $10.
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RISKY BUY
Lost 70% since its high. Downfall is middling results and tiny traction. Customers are concentrated, and this remains a problem, despite announcement this week of collaboration with GOOG. He took profits and is focused on PLTR instead. Approaching a viable valuation. If you're brave, you can take a position here, but have a very close stop on it around $43.
Technology
PARTIAL SELL
Still owns, but has written $280 calls on 3/4 of his position. Above his 12-month price target of $268. Analytical tools to assess creditworthiness. Rapidly penetrating the massive auto loan market. Great story.
Technology
PARTIAL SELL
Quite rich. Semis are at a crossroads, so he's pared back to 20% of his portfolio. Demand now outweighs supply, but this should be more in balance within a year and this is being reflected in the share price. NVDA is the leader in designers. He's taken profits from semis and put more money into the cloud players.
computer software / processing
HOLD
Sell or double down? We've seen this movie before, with China flexing muscle. Tempting to buy at these levels. Recently, Seems to be forming a double bottom. He'd much rather see it above the $180-190 support level. Don't double down until the market tells you it's OK.
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