COMMENT
Market Outlook He has an investment clock that suggests it is a good time to invest in gold equities. Now that gold producers have cut debt, dividends and costs we should now start to see a recapitalization of the junior mining sector as gold prices have edged back to $1500 per ounce. Smaller transactions are getting done suggesting it is starting to begin. The issue is when will the institutional investors come back in. The divesting of large assets by the large players could suck up some of the capital that could have been directed towards the junior miners -- this could slow the progress of the junior space somewhat.
COMMENT
They have been around for over a decade. The idea was to mine on the ocean floor, where there could be silver, copper and some precious metals. Environmentally, there is a lot of resistance to this. It is low tonnage, but high grade. They eventually ran out of capital and went bankrupt.
WAIT
It has a great management team and the Yukon is a friendly place to develop. Infrastructure is the issue. Smaller mining operations can deal with this, but lack of power and transportation are challenging. Where copper prices are, this is still too levered -- you need copper prices to go higher.
DON'T BUY
Mining for gold in Ecuador. Production expected this year. BHP and Newcrest have taken a stake in the area as well. It is a highly prospective area. There is still plenty of geopolitical risk. Taxes and royalty structures could change negatively.
DON'T BUY
He used to own this. He was interested in the West Africa play, but he was looking for a higher grade play instead. Right now West Africa is not a safe play geopolitically speaking. This is probably impacting the share price. Infrastructure constraints make it more expensive in their area as well -- power comes strictly from diesel.
DON'T BUY
They have a geological issue that resulted in a lot of ounces being lost. They are now struggling with the next develop plan. They will not likely ever return to the peak values in 2016. Guyana carries a 5% royalty. He is looking elsewhere.
DON'T BUY
An excellently managed royalty with diversified metals -- mostly base metals, coal and potash along with gold. It is down about 16% since August as it was impacted by lower copper prices and some reductions in production. They carry about $95 million in debt, costing about $2 million per quarter. There may be some short term financing risk.
DON'T BUY
A high grade underground mine. They do not need a lot of power -- it is high grade. US investors do not like West Africa right now. If the project was anywhere else, it would do well. He would not be a buyer because of the security issues.
DON'T BUY
In Western Africa, this miner is looking for funding. It is not the exciting part of the cycle as they are in the de-risking mode. Investors are looking for projects that double resources. Institutional investors are not yet stepping in the space.
HOLD
He owns this one for the interest in other prospective plays in the area. They just released results that were not that impressive, but he hopes they will find multiple positive structures. They are in BC. They have money and will continue to be able to be funded.
HOLD
He visited the mine in Australia -- a tier one asset with high grade and high volume. The issue becomes what do you do from here -- where is the next tier one asset? Their market cap is about $10 billion.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 05/19, Up 3%) He bought it as it was levered to gold prices and is high grade producer in Turkey. They bought another asset that is now producing great results in Brazil. He still holds it and it is still a higher beta miner.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 05/19, Down 29%) The decline is the issue with everyone moving away from base metals. There copper asset in Peru is the place to be. The issue is that the corruption at the government level is slowing the permit process for juniors. He continues to hold it.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 05/19, Down 33%) A copper play in Serbia. It has three joint ventures including Newport. They still have a large land package that could lead to other projects. They also have assets in Bulgaria. He will continue to hold it.
DON'T BUY
An open pit facility in Guyana. As gold prices go up it benefits as it is a high beta stock. He is not too keen on this one as the grade of resource was not what he was looking for.