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Market. The message the market is giving us is that it is very tuned in to what the Fed is doing. A rate rise from 2-4% is a doubling but from 8-10% in the past, is not as big. It influences those using debt to finance their operations. Interest rates are the single biggest factor in the valuation of assets – present / future value. The bar-bell strategy is paying off for him. He is much more conservatively positioned now. He does not own bit coin at this point. He has assets that can do better as the market goes higher in the short term but others that will do better if the market starts to go downward.
WATCH
It is an interesting company that is really well run. It did a bit of a 'U' as it went public with people unloading shares. It is at an interesting technical level. If we see it break higher with higher volume, that is significant. They have a high return on equity and are opening new stores. Their sales per square foot metrics are off the charts. He is keeping a close eye on it.
specialty stores
BUY
They have greater operations in Ontario now. There was controversy around the bidding process. It has been a volatile ride. Growth metrics are excellent. They can fund a lot of their operations thought cash flows but have had to take on some additional debt. Their runway for growth is good and they have a good moat around their business. He likes them. Gambling tends to be recession proof.
entertainment services
COMMENT
Beyond Meat Burger at A&W. Their top line is doubling but they are not profitable yet. First to market is a competitive advantage but not the best. It remains to be seen if they can translate it into a viable business that can create shareholder wealth. He does not know how easy it is to replicate a veggie burger that tastes like meat. He does not participate in the first few days of an issue like this
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 12/18, Down 24%) They have engineered a turnaround and it has turned the corner but it is not getting the love it should. They have a bit of a debt problem and they are reducing it. It has a lot of really great customers, moving from a print based model to a marking and electronic model. He thinks it is grossly undervalued and should trade higher.
Financial Services
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 12/18, Down 19%) He is still loyal to them and increased his position not long ago. The market is predicting better days ahead. They are still growing. They are aggressively buying back shares and opening new stores. It is very, very well run company. Debt is bumping up against levels that are almost concerning him. He thinks they are a great company.
Consumer Products
WEAK BUY
His position is that he does not own it and has a difficult time understanding how they develop a completive advantage in the space. There is clear demand for the product and at the end of the day two or three will emerge and this is probably going to be one of the ones who emerges from this. This would be the one he would own if he had to own one.
agriculture
