N/A
Market. There have been earnings disappointments. He continues to feel bitcoin is worth nothing. AI is going to be a growth space. China is slipping so it is important that China and the US come together with a trade deal soon. Quality of earnings and number of companies beating is in line but the amount by which a company beats is dropping and that is not a good sign. We have come off the bottom on the yield curve, but now it is flatting again. The Fed seems to be on hold with raising rates. We are heading for a recession and the question is only when.
N/A
Where to deploy cash raised in the last few days. He raised a lot of cash last week and the only money he put to work was emerging market debt. It is a currency play that might make 10%. He has just started doing this and will buy more. The ETF is EMM-Q. He has also written a lot of puts in the last few weeks.
BUY
His target yield / benchmark is as in VT-N plus 100 basis points. It's around 3.8% right now. Dividends from foreign corporations are treated as income but about half of it will be from capital gains.
SELL
Equal weight mining ETF. Global mining will underperform going into a recession. Strong sell.
WATCH
REITs. Usually the last thing to fall going into a recession is REITs. They will fall significantly in a recession. This could be a 2020 or 2021 story. If they went 10% lower they might be interesting for a while.
DON'T BUY
S&P or NASDAQ in a 3x inverse leveraged ETF? He would never recommend it because of the erosion of net asset value. The most overvalued part of the market is the small caps so you could use a 1 times leveraged inverse as a trade.
N/A
Educational Segment. Guest - Barry Allan. He tries to have ETF products launched before the sector is going to perform very well. FGO-T has done 3.85% with lower risk. He thinks we have seen the peak in equity markets and the peak in bond markets. It does not mean we are going into recession tomorrow, however. The risk of owning long duration government bonds is minimized significantly now. He thinks it is an opportunity to accumulate long term government bonds. He sees pockets of value in short term high yield corporate bonds also. He is cautious on preferred shares and floating rate products.
N/A
Market. Speculative manias coming into the markets are usually indicative of a top. Global markets are slowing down and NASAQ companies get 44% of their sales from global markets. It was bound to happen that companies would guide down. We saw a bit of a rebound this year but now you are seeing companies impacted by a higher US$ and trade wars slowing growth. CAT-N is feeling the pinch. Canada is his focus. He thinks there have been bargains in Canada for the last few years. Last fall there was indiscriminant selling that created real bargains. He is sticking to sectors that are not that cyclical and have low sensitivity to the Canadian consumer like wine, retirement residences, cemeteries, etc. They are recession resistant.
BUY
Managed software for employee stock purchase programs. They are the world leaders. It is his fifth biggest position. You are going to see recurring revenues ramp up over the next year or two. Profit margins are increasing also. They are reasonably priced. They will continue to grow.
BUY
Third largest holding. They have a 45% market share. They deliver proportioned meals to your door. There is zero wastage. It reduces your carbon footprint. All the packaging is recyclable. Margins are much healthier. They are growing quickly and the stocks is reasonably priced.
DON'T BUY
He bought the bonds over the years. He used to own the stock. They were playing catch-up when they developed their wireless market. They still have to reinvest a lot of money into their network. The easy money has been made. They are limited in their market in Quebec.
BUY
The symbol changed last year. He has a big position (about 7% of the company). They are signing up a lot of new business. The volumes are rising nicely and they are in the process of building a new facility. This is the year for the company to really shine. It pays a nice dividend. Some countries are banning the chemical process.
BUY
The stock got hammered. It is a good buying opportunity. He thinks same store sales will climb back up. There is still more growth ahead of them. It is a great time to buy it.
BUY
It will be the turnaround story for 2019. They are cutting costs in the pharma business. They have these surgery clinics that are up for sale. The market is speculating that they will get a really good price for them. They will pay down most of their debt. They may become more of a takeover target in a couple of years.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It is a nice safe hiding place in these markets. Utilities are still not cheap, but as rates will not be rising, this will be a good place to park money for the long term. Presumably the dividend will be rising each year. Buy it on a dip.