DON'T BUY
Europe is a basket case now, because interest rates are negative. ING's profit was lower this past quarter, because of a settlement with the Dutch government in September. ING is not growing as fast as he'd like.
SELL
Don't chase yield. Their dividend yield is high because the stock price is low. That yield is also not growing, because of European telecom competition; not to mention, 5G is coming so it'll be expensive for them to fund. Inflation over time will eat into their 6% dividend. VOD has been selling assets to cover this dividend. This is a tax-loss sell.
SELL
They have fallen on hard times. They have deals on the table, but no guarantees, and the margins are thin in this business. This trades at a cheap multiple though at 5x forward earnings and 2x cash flow. They have to close deals and get wider margins. A tax-loss sell.
DON'T BUY
Their last quarter wasn't great; there was some positive news in their pharma pipeline. They sold assets from BASF to reduce net debt, which is now at Euros 36.5 billion. The debt-to-cash flow is still high, so they have a low credit rating. Their chemical side isn't growing. EPS are down 18%, which pressured the stock. JNJ has a better phrama pipeline and credit rating.
DON'T BUY
Corruption in Asia has triggered a sell-off. He prefers TD, and owns no US banks. (TD operates in the US.) If they can't shake off these corruption charges, then GS will be in the penalty box for a while
COMMENT
Been stuck in a trading range the past five years: Buy or wait? In 2008, FFH made a lot of money shorting the market, and in the past year he's taken off those shorts and sold all his bonds till he's sitting in cash. Not a good strategy. The combined ratios in their insurance business is high vs. peers. Prem Watsa has been successful buying bad insurance companies and turning them around, but has been successful only sometimes. That said, he likes the future of FFH--as they allocate their cash.
SELL
Tax-loss sell it. Most recently, they are recalling power-generation units around the world, which will further drag down revenues. 20 years ago, this was a quality company. No longer.
BUY
TEVA vs. GSK Teva is in turnaround with a lot of debt to pay off. They need a boast from their future products moving forward. GSK is higher quality with higher credit rating, and lack Teva's debt woes. GSK is the better bet.
DON'T BUY
TEVA vs. GSK Teva is in turnaround with a lot of debt to pay off. They need a boast from their future products moving forward. GSK is higher quality with higher credit rating, and lack Teva's debt woes. GSK is the better bet.
TOP PICK
They produce safety and testing equipment found in buildings, such as elevators. In bad markets, HLMA does not go down. A steady company. They have only 25% of revenues in UK/Europe. The dividend has been rising 7-8% yearly. A safe, defensive stock. (Analysts’ price target is $1404.17)
TOP PICK
They own pawn stores in America, Mexico and now Colombia . They do well when the economy weakens and trade a lot in gold jewllery. As the US dollar falls and price rises, he'd rather own this than gold or a gold ETF. Dividend has been rising 15% yearly. (Analysts’ price target is $94.14)
TOP PICK
Purely defensive. They've been increasing their dividend 10% yearly. A place to hide during the storm. (Analysts’ price target is $46.96)