Year-over-year sales were down 11% and earnings were down 28% in November. For the coming quarter, earnings are expected to be down 13% year-over-year. PE is relatively modest at 9.9%, but growth is forecasted at 23%. If they can actually deliver that growth, the stock appears to be attractive, but with estimates being chopped, analysts are sceptical.
6.9% dividend yield, and the payout is 75%, so the dividend is covered, but stretched. Earnings estimates are up 1% in the last 90 days. Earnings are expected to have a very modest growth of 3% for 2017 versus 2016. Free cash flow is a modest at 2.3%. This borders in the top 3rd of his database. If looking for an income vehicle, he would look elsewhere.
This makes stuff that makes stuff, particularly in the semiconductor space. Their key is extremely precise temperature and measurement pieces. Extremely profitable with a large free cash flow generation. Also, has a lot of cash on the shelf. They may end up acquiring something, or they may be acquired. They are dealing with 4 of the 5 large semiconductor makers. Thinks they have now signed the 5th giving them all of them, and they continue to try to get greater market share within those 5. The latest earnings results for a couple of their clients has been quite positive. Earnings are expected to be $.09 against $1.29, and he thinks there is still pretty good opportunity for the stock going forward.
Basically a company that acquires pharmaceutical products, typically from other large established companies. Ranks in the top 3rd of his database. Earnings have been a bit challenged for the coming quarter. Most recently, sales were up 26% and earnings were up 54%. In the coming quarter,it is expected to have a step back, and earnings are expected to be $.03 versus $.08 last year. Earnings estimates have been shaved by 15%, and earnings for 2017 versus 2016 are literally unchanged at $.13 per share. Against a $10 stock price, that gives you and 82X PE multiple with low to no growth. There is a lot of competition and better opportunities in others.
Great technology. Makes an extremely efficient incinerator for burning flared gas, in particular for getting rid of sulphur dioxide, etc. In spite of having great technology, not a lot of people are using it. Part of that relates to the declining price of oil and natural gas. With his expectation of rising oil prices, that should be beneficial for them. At the moment, earnings are expected to be $.02 against a $.75 stock price, giving a 38X PE multiple and a 4% ROE. He is waiting for an increase in overall sales volume to turn the company around.
Ranks in the top 3rd of his database. A fairly slow growing company. Earnings growth is forecast to be negative, going from $1.03 in 2016 to $.86 in 2017. Free cash flow is a minus 3% on a 4th quarter trailing basis. Using enterprise value to EBITDA, it trades at 22X 4th quarter trailing and is down 2.6%. Dividend yield of 4.2%.
(A Top Pick Feb 8/16. Up 38.9%.) Wind and renewable energy. Continues to rank well in his overall dividend model. Yield of 3% and payout ratio of 23%. The purpose of owning this is to benefit from the rising earnings, up 36% in November, and expected to be up 75% when they report in March. Year-over-year earnings growth is expected to go from $.21 in 2016, to $.48 in 2017, giving a 42X PE multiple. Free cash flow is minus 7%. Enterprise value to EBITDA is at 13X. Still feels there are great opportunities for growth.
Payout ratio on 4th quarter trailing cash flow is 28%. The challenge is near term earnings which are forecast to grow significantly from $1.19 to $1.82, a 53% earnings growth forecast for 2017 gives a PE of 10X and a PE/Growth of .2 which is particularly attractive. ROE of 19% is forecasted for this year with 11% free cash flow yield. Dividend yield of 6.5%.
Sold his holdings about 2 months ago. Payout ratio is 56%, reasonable within the utility part of their business. Earnings grew 75% as of October 20, and are forecast to decline by 19% when they report in February. Overall earnings for the year is forecast at $.99, and a slight decline to $.97 in 2017. Free cash flow growth is negative. He would prefer other stocks. Dividend yield of 6.7%.
Market. Using Schiller’s cyclically adjusted PE, US stocks are not cheap. At 28X, it is 70% higher than the long-term average. However, valuations in most cases is not a good measure for market timing. More important is what is happening to interest rates. A lot of people indicate we still have another year or 2 for the market to run before there needs to be concern about an economic slowdown. Goldman Sachs thinks interest rates would need to go to nearly 4% before the economy would be markedly slowed down.