The stock is trading at about a 40% discount to its value. It has never traded that low. The problem is that the earnings forecasts have collapsed and are falling into negative ground. There is nothing to assign a value to when doing an analysis. The quality has slipped on the balance sheet. We should not lose site of the fact that they have some really interesting real estate holdings. He thinks IFRS accounting would apply a much higher value to their holdings. There could be a lot there from a net worth point of view.
Hunter Harrison has left CP-T and is rumoured to be heading to CSX-N. The question is whether he can unleash the metrics he did on CP-T. If this is true then you should hang on despite the 20% increase in CSX-N today. Most of the rail stocks are quite expensively valued. Betting on any boardroom battle is always risky, but he has made two underperforming rails into stars.
He thinks you should be careful about valuing opportunities on whether Warren Buffet is buying them. He has historically hated airlines, but is giving his managers more room these days. LUV-N is expensive now in terms of fair market value and he does not see any upside. It will go on sentiment, rather than value.
Markets. We had a lovely lead up until tomorrow (Inauguration), and the market has said that this is really wonderful. Trump’s tweeting rather changed the rules of the game. Now we are going to find out if and when some of his programs can be put into place. Interest rates are going to wend their way upward. This year will tend to be a value market with high momentum stocks running out of gas. You have to pay attention this year to the values of what you are buying.