Today, John Hood and Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI commented about whether BOFI-Q, WFM-Q, HBG-T, WEED-T, XLF-N, KR-N, ENB-T, SLF-T, ZEB-T, ZWH-T, AGT-T, ROP-N, IAC-Q, CCL.B-T, AAPL-Q, SBUX-Q, ZUB-T, VRX-T, BABA-N, ATD.B-T, HFR-T, HIX-T, ZUB-T, ZPR-T, XIC-T, FLI-T, VEE-T, FIE.A-T, XEI-T, VO-N, QMV-T, MDY-N, HGU-T, XID-T, ZWE-T, ZRE-T, XRE-T, IBB-Q are stocks to buy or sell.
Move to ETF’s from mutual funds? If you have Bank owned mutual funds, there is no problem at all because you can sell them without paying a commission, as well as having lower fees than regular mutual funds. With regular mutual funds, you have the curse of deferred sales charges of about 5%. He tends to look at the overall fees of their whole portfolio. You can take a hit now, or wait for 2 years and end up paying twice that in regular fees. First, call the mutual fund to see what their DSCs are on your portfolio.
This is fine if you want to be involved, but remember any dividends are accrued in the US are taxed as income, not as a dividend. (If it is a covered call, then he really doesn’t like the story as he doesn’t like First Asset’s covered calls. They only do it on 25% of the portfolio, so your amount of income is pretty small and your downside protection is pretty small. Also, fees are quite high for 25% covered calls.)
Sell? All of these tanked 1.5 years ago. A number of institutions have been buying the preferreds now, and he doesn’t see any reason to be selling this, once you have taken their hit. Also, as rates go up, some of the resets may be setting at a higher rate. A good fund and very well diversified. 5.5% dividend yield.
Buy options on a gold stock, or use an ETF? He is not a fan of gold, and has been negative on it for years. Gold reacts to the value of the US$. If you have a strong US$, and it looks like interest rates are going to increase slightly, which will increase the value of the US$, why would you want to be in gold? Also, if he is going to take a risk on a commodity, he would rather take the risk and not have it hedged off and have his upside limited.
This is about 60% US regional banks. There are 2 issues with US banks, especially the bigger ones. They have been sharply curtailed after the financial crisis, and can’t do a lot of the trading that they used to do. Also, they have had to pay huge fines. The fines seem to have finally worked its way through the system.
Market. If you just read the headlines, you would think we are in dire straits. This market is battle weary and has had a lot of big things thrown at it. Quite surprisingly, it has actually been very resilient. Technically he thinks there is something about to resolve itself as the S&P 500 is getting into a wedge where it is either going to go one way or the other. He thinks it is going to burst up. If you follow the market fundamentals, although they are not extremely robust and exciting, they have been moving in the right direction. The recent ISM Manufacturing report was quite phenomenal, one of the best measurements he has seen in a long time. It wasn’t great on the top line “headline” number, but all the sub components, the different sectors of the market, had great readings. Something like 8 out of 9 sub sectors were in a positive mode. The sentiment in the market is very muted, and he is convinced that most people are still afraid of what happened in 2008, so every $1 that is put in the market right now, is done with trepidation, a lot of research and a lot of soul-searching. Doesn’t think anything is going to happen between now and the US elections. He has been at about 15% cash all year.
Has held this for a long time, and it has done great. The only concern is that it has had a grind for 2016. The market reacted very positively to their CST purchase in the US. It had a big pop and then has faded back down. The problem is, they are going to have a lot of acquisitions they are going to have to work through right now, which is what the market is probably not rewarding them for. It will probably continue to consolidate for another couple of months, and then hopefully will resolve itself to the upside.
The banks have been beaten up, and have now been cleaned. They’ve gone into every corner of their balance sheet to rectify the situation. They have capital return strategies. Technically speaking, the charts are looking interesting. A single Fed rate hike will not send this flying up into the air, but what will work is the steepening of the yield curve, which is what we are all waiting for. He would be interested in this name, and would suggest a 3rd now, another position after the election, followed by another 3rd after a Fed rate hike.