The timing on these short term moves is always hard to predict. They are in a turnaround after troubled times and write-offs. The stock has come off the way it has, and yet they have the 407. Their core constriction business has been impacted by commodities. It is starting to look interesting. If you strip out the 407, the rest of the business is trading at a very low multiple.
(Top Pick Feb 17/15, Down 38.08%) He sold about 3-3.5 months ago. The fundamentals have been very good. They are doing all the right things. They are getting swept up into the weaker fundamentals in the industry. If you don’t believe the economy is tanking, then this one is a pretty interesting one to look at.
The energy sector has been in under a lot of pressure. This is the time to start doing homework on higher quality companies. They generate good cash flow and have hedges in place. The market is forward looking and there is a lot of bad news about oil. When things swing a long way to one side, he tries to look at the other side. CPG-T is a good quality name in the space.
(Top Pick Feb 17/15, Down 29.60%) A very high quality builder with a lot of land holdings. Housing starts are at record levels. Data points support a continued recovery in housing. Last year it was not as fast as people had hoped. This one is quite interesting unless the US goes into recession, which he does not see.
Markets. Commodities have been in a relentless decline. A small number of stable companies are leading the way and everything else is under a lot of pressure. We are down over 35% from a year and a half ago. He goes for the liquid names. They need very stable underlying business characteristic. He is not interested in volatile, speculative companies. The FANG stocks have been leading the US market. Breadth has been declining. A lot of bad news and volatility is baked into the prices of stocks. He thinks it will be very volatile for the next 6 to 12 months. He does not think the Fed will raise rates again soon, just one or two small hikes over the next 12 months.