The bad news is that the stock had moved back up to technical resistance in the $58-$59 area, before setting back down to another support level. Technically it has been walking upstairs steadily. The good news is that his Fair Market Value is well up over $100. He could see this getting as high as $80 on its current fundamentals.
Possibility of Bell (BCE-T) taking over this company? His gut instinct says No in that the CRTC might not allow it. Looking at this company on its own merits, his Fair Market Value calculation is about $37-$38, about a 15% upside. When he buys a stock, he likes to see a lot of potential and 15% is not very much. There is a lot of overhead technical resistance at about $33.
Their 12 months earnings forecast going out was $2.15 and the dividend is $2.40, so coverage is sketchy. They need a great big increase in the earnings outlook in order to get going again. However, his Fair Market Value calculation is pretty good, even based on those rather depressing earnings. He had a target of $32 and even higher. There is a good possibility, if those earnings get some momentum behind them, you’ll get back up to the $32-$33 area, about 4X Book. This is typically where this company has peaked in the past.
Topped out in 2000 at about 18X its Book Value and then has spent 10 years in the wilderness. Gradually all that equipment that was installed back then is getting technologically old and is needing to be replaced. In the meantime we have Cloud computing coming on strong, and this company is superb in the hardware area there. Yield of 2.96%.
By and large US banks are quite cheap. There is still a holdover from 2008-2009 where there were some issues. The longer that time goes on, the longer interest rates stay low and the longer these companies get rid of and restructure their balance sheets, the better is their outlook. They all have good upside potential of 50%-70%. It is a question of when the market is going to be a little more relaxed about the stocks and freely buy and recommend them again.