Today, Bill Carrigan and Jason Donville commented about whether CSU-T, PSD-T, DEE-T, MCR-X, WEQ-T, GSY-T, X-T, HCG-T, FN-T, QSR-T, DHX.B-T, MAXR-T, HWO-T, FFH-T, MFC-T, GIB.A-T, DCI-T, Y-T, BYD-T, CFN-T, RFC-X, SUM-T, CPHR-Q, OTEX-T, CHW-T, RX-X, CAE-T, MNT-N, AGT-T, CFP-T, DGC-T, RKN-T, SU-T, MX-T, CAFE-US, PONY-T, EFN-T, KMI-N, ZJG-T, ZCA-T, U-T, AVO-T, RSI-T, CPST-Q, REI.UN-T, HBM-T, BAC-N, L-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Has had quite a run. There were periods of consolidation in 2011 and 2012 followed by a breakout. Early 2013 was where you would want to buy these things. It is still going up; however he is worried about natural gas prices cutting into the company’s profits. Use a semi-long scale and draw a trend line and as long as it stays above the trend line, you are fine as it could work higher.
Chart shows a disappointing period from late 2011 into early 2013 with a lot of congestion. It finally broke out in mid-2013 and he doesn’t feel it would do you any harm. Doesn’t see any more upside than what is already there. Imperial (IMO-T) and Husky (HSE-T) both tried a breakout and ran into resistance. If you’re happy with the yield, you are probably going to be okay with this but there are probably better places to be.
You really have to know the story behind this to be in love with it. Chart shows a long base in 2011-2012 followed by a breakout in late 2012 with a 3 wave advance in 2013. He does not like this one under $6, so be very careful. When you buy in after a spike, you have to be convinced that the story supports what you are going to do.
Likes the gold stocks and the Junior sector. If you are going to get involved with this sector, buy 2 or 3 names, not just one. Chart shows a bottom in the latter part of 2013 and it is now trying to get above $12.20. An investigation has been launched on behalf of shareholders. If you own, he would probably stay with it, but instead of adding to it, find another name in order to diversify a bit.
Rather than getting into the food futures, he just wants to get into a play where he is benefiting from grain prices, grain activity, etc. This is a beneficiary of a long-term boom in food demand. Chart shows a long downtrend from 2011 followed by a new advance in early 2013. There is a growth channel and if the price gets down to the lower part of the growth channel, he would be a buyer. Yield of 3.23%.
He wants to be in the gold space. Everybody should have a little bit of gold component in their portfolio. Gold has been acting inversely to other assets. Chart shows a breakdown starting in late 2012 followed by a new bull cycle in late 2013. In Canada there are not a lot of places to own physical gold, but this is one of them.
Markets. The market feels very topish right now. Very hard to find really outstanding value. Not a lot of momentum from a technical point of view. Most of the technical indicators are suggesting that a correction is coming. Doesn’t see any economic storm clouds, but thinks the market is a bit ahead of itself. Has positioned his portfolio in anticipation of a correction. A good time to be gathering cash. Look at your lowest conviction names, the things you have the weakest conviction with and not the portfolio. Typically some time between April and June we will get a correction and most things you are interested in owning will be cheaper, so he wouldn’t dillydally now. March is a good time because there are still a lot of RRSP inflows so now is a good time to clean up your portfolio. Raise some cash where you can.
Very, very good management team. Some really good products. Has a lot of cash. Very high ROE. He owns it, but doesn’t have a massive position in it because it is quite a small company. A good, long-term growth story. Symptomatic of the issues of a lot of the great growth companies, i.e., they were trading in the single digit PE ratios but are now trading in the high teens or mid-20s. Not cheap, but a great one.
Over the last 12 months, this has had one of the weirdest trading patterns on the TSX. It sort of trades between $7 and $9 with no apparent reason. Its lead drug down in the US is doing great. Recent numbers were spectacular. He is meeting with management in a couple of days and wants to question what is happening with the rest of the company and what are they doing to develop the rest of the business. Wants to know what they have to do to get their lead drug moving in other countries, and with the phenomenal cash flows coming in, what are they doing to get other drugs going, etc. If you can buy this under $7.50, it is a very good buy.
His only concern with this is valuation. ROE is quite high, but the stock is now trading in the 22-23 times earnings range, which is getting pricey. Reporting this week and he expects a good quarter. When stocks get trading up in the $20s X earnings, he likes to try to find that same level of growth at a more reasonable price. Has been trimming of late because of valuation.
Think of a bull market as like a baseball game. When you get into the last 3 innings of the game, it doesn’t matter what financials do in earnings, people kind of get cautious. With his recent discussions with management and his own analysis, it suggests all is well. Everything is going well so he continues to own the stock. Has no problems recommending it as a Buy. March year end so people will soon be looking at as valuation in terms of the following year. Right now it is on 20X this year’s earnings and 12X the following year’s earnings. Just be patient and it should get going again.