TOP PICK
A conservative play as the macro backdrop is not encouraging right now. Predominantly hydro-assets. Yielding over 6% with modest upside growth from this. Probably average 10% total return over the course of a year.
TOP PICK
Foster Creek and Christina Lake are the 2 main SAGD operations and have some of the best ratios in the business. Have 137 billion barrels of oil in place on their lands, which will support potential production of 2 million barrels a day.
TOP PICK
Holding 40% cash in his funds. Energy resource area is a risk trade but only works if there is global growth. Top down view of global growth seems to be deteriorating. You want to be cautious for the next 3-4 months. You can start looking to buy in the late fall.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick July 24/09. Down 1%.) Sold in May with a little bit of profit. Had great exploration/production upside, particularly offshore. Now that things are clearing up in the Gulf, it might be time to look at this again.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick July 24/09. Up 36%.) Continues to grow at about 20% a year. Solid management team. Currently he is favouring Trans Canada (TRP-T) but still likes this one.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick July 24/09. Down 3%.) Got tired of waiting for it to turn so he got out in May. Has done a good job lately of this posing of non-core assets. Repositioning itself in gas and oil sands.
BUY
Likes the name. Screens very well on all the metrics and tends to be one of the cheaper trusts. Reasonably solid balance sheet. His preference is Baytex (BTE.UN-T) and Arc Energy (AET.UN-T)
BUY
7%+ dividend should be safe. Real upside potential for this company is their key position in the Bakken and their ability to increase production and recoveries by water flooding.
BUY
Lagged because it had a reputation of missing guidance and also issuing too much equity to pay for expansion. This is all behind it and it seems to have enough cash flow from existing operations to meet current commitments. Keystone pipeline is a little bit of a mixed bag south of the border but initial phases are contributing to cash flow. Very solid name. (See Top Picks.)
COMMENT
Being acquired by Total (TOT-N). If you own, you should tender, as he doesn't expect there will be another competing offer.
BUY
A good stock but not a screaming buy. It is reasonably fairly valued. They have to bring on some more production at Great Divide. One potential catalyst is that it is a logical acquisition down the road by a large foreign player.
BUY
Should do fairly well in relation to previous quarters. Have had a heck of a last 3-4 quarters with fires at the various upgraders, which cut off a third to two thirds of their production.
HOLD
Has to show investors what it can do, a “show me” story. Investors like this one a lot. Excellent management team. Some real prospectivity in Peru. Real catalyst is Colombia where it has a lot of acreage. Lots of cash.
COMMENT
Pengrowth Energy (PGF.UN-T) or Peyto Energy Trust (PEY.UN-T)? 8% yield, which is to continue next year. Both are gas weighted but Peyto has a better set of land and has been demonstrably better in proving up value over time. Pengrowth has a resource base that they have yet to prove up and develop. Prefers Peyto.
COMMENT
Pengrowth Energy (PGF.UN-T) or Peyto Energy Trust (PEY.UN-T)? 9.3% yield, which is to drop to 7% next year. Both are gas weighted but this one has a better set of land and has been demonstrably better in proving up value over time. Prefers Peyto.