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COMMENT
Carney-Trump meeting.

He wouldn't expect a lot from this meeting. The tariff regime from the Trump administration has been very well telegraphed. Most heads of state have come away with a deal they wouldn't have expected. Keep in mind that the land border between Canada and the US is the longest trade conduit we have. We have some critical minerals that they use in the US, so there are some areas that we can push back on.

The bigger, thornier issue is that USMCA is up for renegotiation next year. Will the Trump administration just rip it up and say let's start again? The optics of cutting a deal on the fly are interesting. Something like the healthcare sector had follow-through that was quite disconnected from the initial announcement.

He'd expect some headlines, but what we actually get delivered may be somewhat different. We've reached the point where the president needs to recognize that Canada's a major trading partner, and the US will suffer if tariffs remain. Tariffs are a tax on US consumers, not on Canadians.

COMMENT
Impact of tariffs.

You can look at a number of different sectors. Take healthcare, for example. If companies can find a workaround, then tariffs are irrelevant. Luxury has sold off. Europe has sold off. Tariffs on the Swiss with their 6 million people and global operations don't amount to much.

While tariffs are a hot button in the US, it doesn't get to the heart of US overspending or its debt problems. Budget deficit in the US is not helpful. Compounding that with the defense budget, and the fiscal stimulus being pushed into the US economy, the result has to be inflationary in some shape or form.

COMMENT
ADRs.

No real concerns with buying these. The only thing is that if you can buy in the home country in the underlying currency, then you don't pay the ADR fee. You want to buy where there's more liquidity; if there's more in the US, then you buy in the US.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 07/24, Down 2%)

Top tier of the global economy does not get hurt by recessions. Long-term chart tells you what you need to know. Lots more organic growth ahead. Get it when it's on sale. He's buying for new clients.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 07/24, Down 7%)

Bit of a turnaround story at the moment. Cheap, low-beta ballast for your portfolio. Pays in Swiss francs, which is a rising structural growth currency.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 07/24, Up 30%)

Has done so well, he took some money off the table as part of good risk management. Long-term chart's performed very well. The kind of name you want in your portfolio. Continues to perform.

TOP PICK

Caught up in the "tariff war". Healthcare behemoth. Very good track record with its acquisition strategy. Lots of firepower. Should be part of the workaround solution for non-American companies. Inexpensive, great entry level. Likes healthcare. Yield is 0.60%.

(Analysts’ price target is $243.33)
TOP PICK

European companies sold off with the tariff threats. Growth by acquisition, and they have the cash to do that. Luxury is a growth category, and while it may be slowing it's outperforming many other segments. Attractively priced. Luxury category holds up very well during recessions. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.33%.

(Analysts’ price target is $559.89)
TOP PICK

Demand for carbon energy is still there within the broader, increasing demand for all energy. Plus, a place like Canada doesn't have the grid to support EVs the way some other countries can. People want nuclear, but not in their backyards. So what's the alternative? 

Buying back shares in significant quantities. You make $$ when you buy, not when you sell. Good value, likes it long term. Dividend is safe. Yield is 3.84%.

(Analysts’ price target is $80.65)
COMMENT

Caller Q&A preempted by Carney-Trump press conference.

COMMENT

There's been A LOT of volatility this year, from the Epstein files to the bombing of Iran and today Trump complaining about the Cracker Barrel logo. What is this all about? Can Trump legally fire the Fed governor? This will be messy to resolve through the courts. Trump is pressing the Fed to lower interest rates. The stock market is at record highs, so there's a disconnect between the market and economy. Typically, you cut rates when the economy starts to weaken. Some areas are, like job losses and company bankruptcies. Suppose the stock market corrects during a rate cut? We cut see a 25 bps cut in the U.S., but no more, based on conditions. If there were no tariffs, inflation could decline. If tariff inflation gets bad, there will actually be a need to raise rates.

PARTIAL SELL

The AI hype is way overextended, like the dotcom era. NVDA's market cap is bigger than all of France or the UK or Canada. Ridiculous. If you own it, trim and take profits. NVDA is only one component of AI with software being another. Why is NVDA soaring and the other components are lagging? Is a recipe for disaster.

DON'T BUY

RFK Jr.'s crusade to cut health costs includes cutting vaccines, and that is a serious headwind. The result is that broad healthcare hasn't been this cheap in a long time and you can enter it now. People will still need therapies and get sick. Are better opportunities than UNH in healthcare.

PARTIAL SELL

Still likes it. It;'s had a big run, but has sold off long-term on ESG terms. A sustainable dividend. Best to trim if you're ahead this year, but if you sell all your holding, you lose that dividend.

HOLD

Ranks CRM, Adobe and likewise the net losers in AI. CRM's growth has slowed in recent years. Is interesting long term, but if it falls further he will reconsider it.

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