Vice President and Partner at Campbell Lee & Ross
Member since: Jan '12 · 2014 Opinions
You can look at a number of different sectors. Take healthcare, for example. If companies can find a workaround, then tariffs are irrelevant. Luxury has sold off. Europe has sold off. Tariffs on the Swiss with their 6 million people and global operations don't amount to much.
While tariffs are a hot button in the US, it doesn't get to the heart of US overspending or its debt problems. Budget deficit in the US is not helpful. Compounding that with the defense budget, and the fiscal stimulus being pushed into the US economy, the result has to be inflationary in some shape or form.
European companies sold off with the tariff threats. Growth by acquisition, and they have the cash to do that. Luxury is a growth category, and while it may be slowing it's outperforming many other segments. Attractively priced. Luxury category holds up very well during recessions. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.33%.
(Analysts’ price target is $559.89)Demand for carbon energy is still there within the broader, increasing demand for all energy. Plus, a place like Canada doesn't have the grid to support EVs the way some other countries can. People want nuclear, but not in their backyards. So what's the alternative?
Buying back shares in significant quantities. You make $$ when you buy, not when you sell. Good value, likes it long term. Dividend is safe. Yield is 3.84%.
There's been A LOT of volatility this year, from the Epstein files to the bombing of Iran and today Trump complaining about the Cracker Barrel logo. What is this all about? Can Trump legally fire the Fed governor? This will be messy to resolve through the courts. Trump is pressing the Fed to lower interest rates. The stock market is at record highs, so there's a disconnect between the market and economy. Typically, you cut rates when the economy starts to weaken. Some areas are, like job losses and company bankruptcies. Suppose the stock market corrects during a rate cut? We cut see a 25 bps cut in the U.S., but no more, based on conditions. If there were no tariffs, inflation could decline. If tariff inflation gets bad, there will actually be a need to raise rates.
The AI hype is way overextended, like the dotcom era. NVDA's market cap is bigger than all of France or the UK or Canada. Ridiculous. If you own it, trim and take profits. NVDA is only one component of AI with software being another. Why is NVDA soaring and the other components are lagging? Is a recipe for disaster.