Top Stock Ideas for 2020: Stocks to Buy in the Next 12 Months
One week into 2020
A week has barely passed in 2020, and already markets have already been rocked by the threat of war between the U.S. and Iran. That drone attack shattered weeks of several all-time highs.
Will this be a short-lived skirmish or all-out war?
No one knows, and investors well-are advised to have a plan for each outcome.In fact, let’s look at several outlooks and determine which stocks and sectors you should buy (or avoid) in the coming 12 months.
BDC, Canada’s entrepreneur’s bank, expects our economy to continue to grow at 1.7%, driven by real estate and consumer spending.
Casting a shadow over our growth lies abroad: trade tensions, the U.S. election in November and Brexit. The trade wars launched by America slowed global growth to 3% in 2019 and will slash almost $700 billion this year. Even if China and America sign phase one, uncertainty persists. The saving grace will be continued low interest rates, plus improving economies in India, Russia and Brazil.
What to expect from the stock market in 2020?
Meanwhile, Bay Streeters expect the TSX to reach anywhere from 17,750 to 18,500 in 2020, with energy, materials, and financials to outperform.
Top Energy Stocks Predictions for 2020
Eric Nuttall, who specializes in oil stocks, names Baytex, Crescent Point and Tourmaline as his top picks. Most oil stocks pay generous dividends. CPG-T, for example, yields nearly 8% (disclosure: I own this).
Here are Eric Nuttall‘s top oil stocks outlined:
A Calgary based oil and natural gas company. A junior stock that is trading below book value, with good assets in shale in Texas. A well-managed company that was chosen as a Top Pick by Eric Nuttall in mid-December.
Always had too much debt, heavy oil, etc. and now they are going into the Clearwater play. They acquired a massive position and drilled the 2 best wells and got cashflow back in a month. Trading at material discount and changing rapidly. Committed to being a strong returner of capital. (Analysts’ price target is $4.83)
A Canadian oil and natural gas company. They have assets mainly in North Dakota and Southern Saskatchewan. The company continues to buy back stocks.
She owns no energy producers. CPG has benefited the past year from rising oil prices. But over five years, you're down double digits. This year, it'll depend on oil prices. If you think oil prices will go a lot higher, so will CPG, but she can't forecast oil. Though, she doesn't see a huge rise.
A big natural gas producer that continues to buy back stocks. They spun out some of their infrastructure into a royalty offering that gives them liquidity to make acquisitions.
Believes company stock price has further room to grow. Best managed company in natural gas business. Sells a lot of natural gas into California market at a premium. Believes natural gas prices will remain strong (reduced drilling and growing economy). Additional dividend payouts and share buybacks are great for shareholders.
Top Materials Stocks for 2020
Here are Jaime Carrasco‘s top material stocks outlined:
A major Canadian gold producer with operations in North America and Finland. They operate in lower geopolitical risky areas. New mines are producing and they have increased their dividend by 40%.
Happy for the merger with KL. A hell of a buy at current levels. Like a surfboard riding the wave. Merger will provide great cashflow going forward, in areas of the world that don't have as much geopolitical risk. $88 target.
A financing company for precious metal mining companies. The company has good cash flow and continues to buy back shares. They have a mine in Turkey that will go online in the next few years that will help the stock jump higher.
Likes it. A hold, with a $9 target. Let it run, reassess down the road. Will benefit from the rise in the commodity. Diversified projects, no mining production risk. Long-term, will do really well. Right now, has to catch up to inflation.
Top Financials Stocks in 2020
One of the leading Candian banks with US exposure. They have over 50% of their business in US retail space. Analysts expect a dividend increase, putting the yield at 4.5%.
Both are good banks and look fine. The dividend will probably increase. As with other banks they are good for buying in the short and mid term but there will be competition in the long term. He owns TD but BMO.
The leading bank in Canada. A good income investment choice with yield at 4%. Higher interest rates would be beneficial to the banks. This could be a good entry point for banks.
If inflation and rising interest rates leads to a steeper environment, then yes, it will be positive. If Feds make a policy mistake and the yield curve flattens, it will be negative. The steeper the yield curve, the more profitable it is for banks. In the back half of next year, there is a risk…
Playing the TSX with an Index ETF
A simple way to play the TSX would be an index ETF, such XIC or XIU, but the difference between the current 17,000 level to the most optimistic 18,500 is only 8.8%. Add to that the 2.8% yield (after the MER) of either ETF, and you will gain 11.6%.
Even better, wait for a market pullback of, say, 5% before buying a tranche to better your adds and gains. Though the TSX could fall deeper, nobody sees a recession coming this year. Hope they’re right.
An ETF that tracks the TSX closely. A good way to diversify with a low MER and get a broader exposure to Canada.
XIC vs. XIU Correlations and holdings are quite similar. XIC contains about 240 holdings, so more diversified. XIC has a 6 bps MER, while XIU is 18 bps. Performance has been very similar. XIU has a bigger weighting in banks, about 28%. XIC has about 23% in banks. Not much diversification if you own both.…
An ETF that tracks the TSX60 large cap stocks. A low-cost way to get exposure to good names like the banks. One of the largest and oldest Canadian ETFs.
XIU vs. XIC Correlations and holdings are quite similar. XIC is more diversified, with about 240 holdings. XIC has a 6 bps MER, while XIU is 18 bps. Performance has been very similar. XIU has a bigger weighting in banks, about 28%. XIC has about 23% in banks. Not much diversification if you own both.…
US Banks to Buy in 2020
JP Morgan predicts U.S. growth to slow from 2.3% last year to 1.7% in 2020 as the American consumer continues to spend. The bank sets a 2020 price target for the S&P at 3,400 with an EPS of 19x, which is the Wall Street consensus, but don’t expect the stellar performance of the past two years.
Rather, 2020 to be the “year of the Great Rotation II,” a repeat of 2013 when retail investors shifted from bond funds into equity funds. Also, JPM reflects Wall St. Consensus that the US dollar will show weakness, at least early this year. Oil should improve in 2020, given OPEC’s deeper production cuts, with Brent averaging US$64.50 per barrel.
One of the big American banks. A leader in the US banking space and a bellwether. A premier company that comes with a premium. Analysts expect to see continued dividend growth and steep earnings growth.
The biggest American bank. Earnings last week were met with a yawn and shares slipped. They will benefit from post-Covid when consumer and retail loans pick up. Their margins will also rise as interest rates increase. All the banks took too many reserves due to Covid, so those losses didn't happen, so that's another plus…
Wells Fargo is a little less optimistic. It calls for 1.8% growth; targets 3,200-3,330 for the S&P; and WTI between $55-65. For maintain global growth, consumers must continue to spend, fixed-income spreads must be “well-behaved” and the US-China trade war must de-escalate. WF favours tech, consumer discretionary and financials, but gives the thumbs-down to communication services and materials. It predicts large-cap’s EPS to rise 6.3%, but only 3% in mid-caps.
An American bank that recently hired a new CEO, who was accepted by the market. There were some regulatory issues following fraudulent accounts that has hurt them. It now seems to be improving and has started to follow the other US banks.
Question about American bank stocks. Be selective and don't buy the ETF. He owned Wells Fargo before but he switched to JPM. There has been negative news. The stock is now looking better and with the positive changes being made it could grow back. Looks undervalued.
More US stocks to buy in 2020
The ubiquitous coffee chain that has gone global. They have successfully expanded into China. They are in a very high margin business that continues to do well.
(A Top Pick Jan 29/21, Up 9%) Great holding. Still grew despite Covid. China growth has slowed. Still a growth story long term. A bit expensive now, wait a bit for a new purchase.
A computer software, cloud and service company. Their position in the cloud space is only disputed by Amazon. Their subscription business has continued to go well. A good long term hold.
The big techs are still growing at more than 20% so they are good to own. They break last and turn first. Buy some now and more later when it firms up.
The electric vehicle company that started the trend. It has been known to have high volatility. Valuation is very expensive but the stock continues to edge higher despite all the concerns.
They report Wednesday and he expects another good quarter. This past week, Musk reported EV sales in Europe in surpassed diesel sales--good news.
Emerging Markets and China Stocks to Buy in 2020
After two weak years, emerging markets are poised to enjoy a better, even upbeat 2020. While the U.S. Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, EM central banks are expected to continued cutting rates. That’s the good news. The bad news depends on which country you’re investing in.
Russia, Mexico, South Africa and Argentina are wrestling with political and economic difficulties, including debt repayments. India has its bulls, but also bears. XID-T plays India, though VEE-T covers Asia, including India but excluding Japan. India has great promise, but hasn’t blossomed into a powerhouse like its neighbour, China. In fact, her economy remains sluggish.
An ETF that covers India broadly. The country has a growing middle class with upwardly mobile, English speaking workforce. It is a bet on India and it’s growing population that is set to surpass that of China.
He had been suggesting China but he now suggests changing that to India. The median age there is 28. The rate of literacy is growing dramatically.
An ETF that covers emerging markets broadly. A good long term buy that is one of the best emerging market ETFs in Canada. The MER is 0.25% and covers India as well.
Has better P/E ratios in emerging markets so less downside. Great diversification with 20 to 30 companies from around the world.
In contrast, China remains the biggest economy in emerging markets though her growth will likely continue to slow in 2020: the IMF estimates 5.8% GDP growth, the World Bank 6.1%. Trump’s tariffs and the trade war hurt Chinese stocks in 2019 (and harmed American productivity as well), but the scheduled signing of phase one of the trade deal has lifted a lot of tension.
China will also benefit if the American consumer continues to buy. Bay St. remains bullish on Alibaba and Tencent. But investors either believe in the Chinese economy and the transparency of its financial reporting, or they stay out altogether.
The Amazon of China. The stock has been hit due to the US-China trade war and uncertainty over China. The price has remained the same for a few years. There is no dividend, and has a PEG ratio of over 50.
It is one of the cheapest stocks in value so it should go higher. The negative is China and the Communist Party.
The largest online advertiser and gaming space. It is getting into fintech and cloud storage as well. It is one of the largest internet companies in the world based on revenue and market cap.
(A Top Pick Jan 15/20, Up 19%) Great company with excellent core business. Important to the economy.. Always a risk in stocks in China with the Communist Party. Trimmed his position at $88 and recently bought back below $60.
After gleaning several 2020 outlooks, I can report: sluggish world growth, low yields, but also low or flat interest rates. Risk assets will grind higher while the U.S. dollar will soften. Gold will continue to be a hedge against uncertainty. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China will decrease, but remain on the table.
After all, both the Republicans and Democrats will talk tough about China during the election campaign, a campaign that will play a huge role in 2020 markets. There’s little chance of recession this year, but geopolitical tension remains, as we are experience now with Iran and America. Expect more volatility.
Have a good 2020!