One week into 2020
A week has barely passed in 2020, and already markets have already been rocked by the threat of war between the U.S. and Iran. That drone attack shattered weeks of several all-time highs.
Will this be a short-lived skirmish or all-out war?
No one knows, and investors well-are advised to have a plan for each outcome.In fact, let’s look at several outlooks and determine which stocks and sectors you should buy (or avoid) in the coming 12 months.
BDC, Canada’s entrepreneur’s bank, expects our economy to continue to grow at 1.7%, driven by real estate and consumer spending.
Casting a shadow over our growth lies abroad: trade tensions, the U.S. election in November and Brexit. The trade wars launched by America slowed global growth to 3% in 2019 and will slash almost $700 billion this year. Even if China and America sign phase one, uncertainty persists. The saving grace will be continued low interest rates, plus improving economies in India, Russia and Brazil.
What to expect from the stock market in 2020?
Meanwhile, Bay Streeters expect the TSX to reach anywhere from 17,750 to 18,500 in 2020, with energy, materials, and financials to outperform.
Top Energy Stocks Predictions for 2020
Eric Nuttall, who specializes in oil stocks, names Baytex, Crescent Point and Tourmaline as his top picks. Most oil stocks pay generous dividends. CPG-T, for example, yields nearly 8% (disclosure: I own this).
Here are Eric Nuttall‘s top oil stocks outlined:
A Calgary based oil and natural gas company. A junior stock that is trading below book value, with good assets in shale in Texas. A well-managed company that was chosen as a Top Pick by Eric Nuttall in mid-December.
(A Top Pick Feb 12/20, Down 33%) A higher-beta oil play. They have excess debt that they'll pay down this year with free cash flow. They have a good free cash flow yield. He targets $1.40-1.50 based on $60 oil. At $60, this is a free cash flow machine. The business model changes drastically from…
A Canadian oil and natural gas company. They have assets mainly in North Dakota and Southern Saskatchewan. The company continues to buy back stocks.
A value trap that tumbled from $40 to $20 to lower over the years. Fortunately, it's now seeing a bit of a turnaround. However, the world is pushing away from oil and towards green energy. That said, CPG could continue to move up, though not back up to its heyday. He would pass, but he…
A big natural gas producer that continues to buy back stocks. They spun out some of their infrastructure into a royalty offering that gives them liquidity to make acquisitions.
The price of oil has moved up a lot since November. It could possibly go as high as $100. Mainly a western Canadian oil company. Well completion cost is 40-50% less than their competitors. Dividend of 2% that is expected to grow. Management is bullish with $850M of free cashflow. Sales are up 19%. 3.6x…
Top Materials Stocks for 2020
Here are Jaime Carrasco‘s top material stocks outlined:
A major Canadian gold producer with operations in North America and Finland. They operate in lower geopolitical risky areas. New mines are producing and they have increased their dividend by 40%.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. You could take a full position in AEM today. Gold stocks are likely better than bullion right now. A good hedge against inflation with more upside potential. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
A financing company for precious metal mining companies. The company has good cash flow and continues to buy back shares. They have a mine in Turkey that will go online in the next few years that will help the stock jump higher.
(A Top Pick Nov 20/19, Up 8%) It's lagged the sector, because it's a royalty company. You need to hold producers and royalties in a portfolio. With royalties, you expect more asset growth in the value of these assets. These companies help finish financing and building a mine for a producer. Once that mine is…
Top Financials Stocks in 2020
One of the leading Candian banks with US exposure. They have over 50% of their business in US retail space. Analysts expect a dividend increase, putting the yield at 4.5%.
(A Top Pick Mar 10/20, Up 37%) It will be a good year for banks. Earnings were up 10% yoy and reached record high. Their provisions for credit losses are at 15 year low. Have to give kudos to the Canadian government. Has the strongest capital position among banks which will be deployed as soon…
The leading bank in Canada. A good income investment choice with yield at 4%. Higher interest rates would be beneficial to the banks. This could be a good entry point for banks.
(A Top Pick Feb 06/20, Up 7%) Over-reserved, and so they're in good shape. Yield curve is steepening. Really good growth in trading and banking. Great asset management business and retail franchise. Canada's strong regulatory environment helps stabilize our banks. Not expensive, great dividend yield.
Playing the TSX with an Index ETF
A simple way to play the TSX would be an index ETF, such XIC or XIU, but the difference between the current 17,000 level to the most optimistic 18,500 is only 8.8%. Add to that the 2.8% yield (after the MER) of either ETF, and you will gain 11.6%.
Even better, wait for a market pullback of, say, 5% before buying a tranche to better your adds and gains. Though the TSX could fall deeper, nobody sees a recession coming this year. Hope they’re right.
An ETF that tracks the TSX closely. A good way to diversify with a low MER and get a broader exposure to Canada.
(A Top Pick Dec 05/19, Up 2%) It is a core holding for the TSX. He has little Canadian holdings and has not had for several years. He is not that keen on Canada mainly because of government policy bent on destroying the energy industry.
An ETF that tracks the TSX60 large cap stocks. A low-cost way to get exposure to good names like the banks. One of the largest and oldest Canadian ETFs.
An ETF to buy? There are so many ETFs, so it depends what you're looking for. XIU offers growth and income for retirees. This is a core holding for any investors. There's also a BMO utilities ETF offering a yield and upside. Also, a Canadian bank ETF from any vendor will give you income and…
US Banks to Buy in 2020
JP Morgan predicts U.S. growth to slow from 2.3% last year to 1.7% in 2020 as the American consumer continues to spend. The bank sets a 2020 price target for the S&P at 3,400 with an EPS of 19x, which is the Wall Street consensus, but don’t expect the stellar performance of the past two years.
Rather, 2020 to be the “year of the Great Rotation II,” a repeat of 2013 when retail investors shifted from bond funds into equity funds. Also, JPM reflects Wall St. Consensus that the US dollar will show weakness, at least early this year. Oil should improve in 2020, given OPEC’s deeper production cuts, with Brent averaging US$64.50 per barrel.
One of the big American banks. A leader in the US banking space and a bellwether. A premier company that comes with a premium. Analysts expect to see continued dividend growth and steep earnings growth.
Grandaddy of money centre banks. Arguably the best run bank in the world. Trading and investment banking did extremely well. These will do less well in 2021, but steepening yield curve will make up for it. Yield is 2.48%. (Analysts’ price target is $146.96)
Wells Fargo is a little less optimistic. It calls for 1.8% growth; targets 3,200-3,330 for the S&P; and WTI between $55-65. For maintain global growth, consumers must continue to spend, fixed-income spreads must be “well-behaved” and the US-China trade war must de-escalate. WF favours tech, consumer discretionary and financials, but gives the thumbs-down to communication services and materials. It predicts large-cap’s EPS to rise 6.3%, but only 3% in mid-caps.
An American bank that recently hired a new CEO, who was accepted by the market. There were some regulatory issues following fraudulent accounts that has hurt them. It now seems to be improving and has started to follow the other US banks.
Economic activity is pushing up long-term rates as the Fed restrains long-term rates. This results in a rising yield curve, which swells the bottom line of banks. WFC is the cheapest of the banks. Good CEO, too.
More US stocks to buy in 2020
The ubiquitous coffee chain that has gone global. They have successfully expanded into China. They are in a very high margin business that continues to do well.
A quality stock that is poised to benefit from the reopening. Same store sales were up 5% in China. They are overcoming fewer transactions with offsetting bigger baskets. 2021 outlook was raised. 48% EPS growth trading at 25x 2023 valuation. Pays a reasonable dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $108.84)
A computer software, cloud and service company. Their position in the cloud space is only disputed by Amazon. Their subscription business has continued to go well. A good long term hold.
Great success story. Continues to like it and would buy it here. You could trim if it's overweight in your portfolio, but never sell the whole thing. Cloud computing will continue to grow substantially. Long runway. A lot of their products can benefit from intersecting with AI, VR, internet of things.
The electric vehicle company that started the trend. It has been known to have high volatility. Valuation is very expensive but the stock continues to edge higher despite all the concerns.
TSLA vs. GM He's purchased GM. The EV revolution has been a long time coming, and now it's a practical opportunity. 30% EV offerings by 2025, and 100% by 2035. Tesla has built a fantastic brand, but there's a fundamental disconnect between the stock price and the fundamentals. GM is trading at 6x enterprise value…
Emerging Markets and China Stocks to Buy in 2020
After two weak years, emerging markets are poised to enjoy a better, even upbeat 2020. While the U.S. Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, EM central banks are expected to continued cutting rates. That’s the good news. The bad news depends on which country you’re investing in.
Russia, Mexico, South Africa and Argentina are wrestling with political and economic difficulties, including debt repayments. India has its bulls, but also bears. XID-T plays India, though VEE-T covers Asia, including India but excluding Japan. India has great promise, but hasn’t blossomed into a powerhouse like its neighbour, China. In fact, her economy remains sluggish.
An ETF that covers India broadly. The country has a growing middle class with upwardly mobile, English speaking workforce. It is a bet on India and it’s growing population that is set to surpass that of China.
VEE vs. XID VEE covers EM. XID: India has a young working population who speak English. India fits well into global commerce. If they build their infrastructure, India will do well. Problem is, everyone knows India's long-term story and already have high expectations. India has been underperforming the past year, so he wants to see…
An ETF that covers emerging markets broadly. A good long term buy that is one of the best emerging market ETFs in Canada. The MER is 0.25% and covers India as well.
More of higher risk, higher return holding. It has a lot of weight in China (37% of the portfolio). Global growth will start to participate in the growth seen in industrial markets recently, he thinks. MER 0.24%. Yield 2.65%
In contrast, China remains the biggest economy in emerging markets though her growth will likely continue to slow in 2020: the IMF estimates 5.8% GDP growth, the World Bank 6.1%. Trump’s tariffs and the trade war hurt Chinese stocks in 2019 (and harmed American productivity as well), but the scheduled signing of phase one of the trade deal has lifted a lot of tension.
China will also benefit if the American consumer continues to buy. Bay St. remains bullish on Alibaba and Tencent. But investors either believe in the Chinese economy and the transparency of its financial reporting, or they stay out altogether.
The Amazon of China. The stock has been hit due to the US-China trade war and uncertainty over China. The price has remained the same for a few years. There is no dividend, and has a PEG ratio of over 50.
The Chinese Amazon. 80% of their revenue comes from mainland China. If you can stand the volatility, ANT is worth a lot of money, and this is a great catalyst. Risk is that if you upset the Chinese government, it can shut you down.
The largest online advertiser and gaming space. It is getting into fintech and cloud storage as well. It is one of the largest internet companies in the world based on revenue and market cap.
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks TCEHY stock pays only a 0.2% dividend and trades at a high 56x PE. Well, that’s high by video game standards, but minute compared to Amazon‘s 92x. Then again, Microsoft—which owns a small interest in games—trades at 34x, and TenCent’s own PE a year ago stood at 37.44x. TCEHY stock is…
After gleaning several 2020 outlooks, I can report: sluggish world growth, low yields, but also low or flat interest rates. Risk assets will grind higher while the U.S. dollar will soften. Gold will continue to be a hedge against uncertainty. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China will decrease, but remain on the table.
After all, both the Republicans and Democrats will talk tough about China during the election campaign, a campaign that will play a huge role in 2020 markets. There’s little chance of recession this year, but geopolitical tension remains, as we are experience now with Iran and America. Expect more volatility.
Have a good 2020!