Obsidian Energy, TMAC Resources Inc. and More Earnings Reports this Week (Aug 12-16)

Browse a daily summary of experts opinions on stocks and stock investment information.

Chart shows this consolidated at around $1.10 this spring. Support was broken in early June and it dropped down to below $1. Then it rose again to the support level at around $1.10. The story doesn’t look so great. He wouldn’t want to be in the stock.

(Market Call Minute.) On the top of his radar screen.

They had a recent discovery but it is too small of an entity for analysts to cover. Turkey is not an energy territory.

big producer uranium. New into the Australia market which is virgin, due to government regulations, relaxing.

Has a propane division as well as heating oil in the US, as well as some chemicals. Sold their US construction distribution business, and the balance sheet is better because of that. With a colder weather in Western Canada, he expects them to have good results. Also, expects them to raise their dividend over time.…

Looks for and acquires undervalued Canadian companies. Uses public market valuation and private market valuation, which has a big spread between them, and arbitrages them.

Not many riskier places in the world to be in.

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Up 24%). This will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Bonavista Energy and Tourmaline. He sees this rising to $9 in 12 months and $15 in the next 3 to 5 years. Production is 80% natural gas. They will raise their liquids…

Attractive. Frederick shale seems to be producing. Question is the macro growth story. What happens with the global growth story? If global growth is on the back burner, this story is not going anywhere. If global growth is back in the forefront, this one should go quite a bit higher.

(Market Call Minute.) Quite a volatile story. They have too many small deposits around the world and they need one big major deposit.

It hit upon hard times with an extremely highly leveraged balance sheet, but management has kept the company alive. They have significantly de-risked the company but it has shrunk. The balance sheet is very much improved. This is a very high risk/high reward kind of play.

Exploration company and development. Canadian energy stocks have done extremely badly, so people have gone international, such as this company. Thinks there’s another 50% upside for 08. Good management. Own about 15% of the company.

Just did a $65 million financing and the core NAV is about $1-$1.50, so there is a huge amount of froth built on oil shale potential they are promoting. A lot of downside risk and a low probability of success.

(Market Call Minute.) Just acquired one of her junior companies and she intends to take the shares and hold.

Still very early stage. A long lead cycle. They are trying to get over the hump. They are de-risking assets. They are trying to maintain a nice clean balance sheet. They have easy access to capital so the market is willing to finance the project. There are companies further along the process, though.

Main focus is a play in Northern Alberta, Esteem River (?). Have about 40 sections of land, which contain a lot of oil so wells they drill are very economic. Some of the wells have paid back in less than 6 months. Have more than 150 locations to drill in future. Broke even last quarter…

A Mexican silver company, formerly Scorpio Mining. They want to build a combined company with reserves of more than 1 billion ounces of silver. This is going to take some doing. He is underwater in his small position, but is going to stay with it.

ABX-T vs. G-T. G-T is more the defacto go-to name. ABX-T does not have the growth any more. He thinks G-T has better assets. The problem with G-T used to be excessive valuation but that is not the case now.

Has a very good project in China. If you are okay with investing in China, there are two companies that stand out, this one and Sino Gold. Not a fan of China.

Likes the size of the ore body in Colombia.

Steel manufacturing. Play on infrastructure in Western Canada. Has done a great job over the past 18 months amassing capacity. Has about 420,000 ft.² in Western Canada. An area where he sees growth leading up to the Olympics in 2010. Have some large projects that the market doesn't know about. First 9 months did $80…

A lot of people want to play the housing market in the US and their recovery, which hasn’t really recovered the way people thought it would. Last year there were 900,000 new homes sold, and somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million new homes is a reasonable expectation. This company sells all the stuff that goes…

Had bought this at around $.60 and sold it at over $4. An incredible asset in a copper market that was going up. However, he doesn’t like the DRC, so he got out of this.

Silver play in Mexico. Had a phenomenal 2006, and despite that it is relatively under followed and under covered. Have optioned out about 56% interest in their Wanasebo project on condition that $5 million is spent on drilling over the next 5 years. The grade that they encountered on the initial drilling is twice what…

Has reduced his position but if he didn’t own he would be a Buyer. Trading at one of the cheapest valuations.

Biofuel. Canada has an incredible forestry industry with a huge emphasis on planting trees. PL takes wood waste like sawdust and turns it into energy. This fuel can replace coal that is also carbon-neutral.

It is hard to finance junior diamond miners. But once they line up all the partners, thinks this could be a potential mine, but high risk.

They have had a fantastic track record on the exploration front. They bought a shut in zinc mine and then the price of zinc dropped. He would stay away from it until they delineate new zones they can extract ore from.

Picked up a large land package in Ontario and Québec. Conceptually picked up on trend large deposits of Detour (DGC-T) and looking to replicate the same success.

Cobalt deposit in Zambia. Doesn't follow this one closely. His sense is the deposit is a good size but the grade is fairly low.

They picked up a project that a lot of work was done on before the crash, and they are convinced that they can solve the problems.

Likes the space. There are very few ways to play it. Production profile is very strong. Always has been quite a liquid stock. Recovering automotive industry is one of the reasons it is doing well. Demand is rising. It’s more a pure play on Platinum.

They are active in several concessions in Mongolia. Any one of their projects could be a major mine. Should do well over the long term.

Located in the Sugar zone in Ontario. They’ve drilled the top 400 m of their deposit, which has a decent grading resource at about 7-8 g a ton, and have about 4000 ounces. That means they have found about 1000 ounces per vertical metre. That is a pretty good metric for the start of a…

This would be his preference in the gold sector. Very rapid growing production profile. Plan to be an 800,000 producer in a couple of years. Currently producing 200,000.

He likes management and the asset. They are looking to produce 120,000-150,000 ounces of gold per year. They are all-in sustaining costs of around $740-$790. Have $50 million in cash. They are paying down their debt, which is only about $54 million. A single asset company and in a jurisdiction not everybody wants to be…

They have totally different management. A good decade ino the past until it was up and trading. There were a lot of industrial companies in Canada in the late ‘90s and early 2000s. You are seeing a resurgence in the industrials. China has been the big importer of industrial steel and they just held a…

Very strong management team and a superb asset. Has been a long time in developing and will ultimately work out, but doesn't know when. Bullish on the stock, but taking much longer than anticipated. Big projects under way.

Play on the US housing recovery as well as timber, as they ship to US and Asia. Management bought 3 sawmills in 2006 which have been losing money. Have recapitalized a couple of the mills and are looking for better utilization. With better timber prices, she is expecting it to turn around and will probably…

Has a cobalt bithumite property in the North West Territories that looks extremely promising. Is really excited about their anthracite coal project in north west BC. Significantly undervalued.

Recently did a financing. Believes graphite, which is used in lithium batteries, is the next big wave in Canadian mining. Owns a small position in this one but may be adding to it. Wait until the financing comes off of restrictions, which could create some weakness.

They had a lousy quarter. The stock is too cheap now. A small market cap company--caveat. There's a lot of exploration upside. Their earlier quarters beat expectations. They're in the penalty box, but they will recover.

Hope Bay gold project. He is the senior lender. Great management. High quality guy working in a tough environment.

Operating in jurisdictions where there are political and/or terrorist risks. Trading on fairly good volume. Small market cap. Too many shares outstanding. Had losses in 10 quarters of reporting.

Have projects in Nevada and French Guiana. Until recently, French Guiana was a tough place to explore. However, the government has mapped out areas where you can mine open pit, areas where you can mine underground and areas where you cannot mine. That is a huge plus. Have a large deposit in French Guiana of…

This company is a super class but is suffering from the same aches and pains that so much of the resource sector is suffering from. This is one of those situations that if you are not in it, you ought to be buying. The catalyst will be the general improvement in the market.

Has been an investor in this for a long time. They bought a Papua New Guinea project from Barrick (ABX-T) for almost next to nothing. They are about to start producing, and there will be a lift when they go from “no” cash flow to cash flow. He is also hoping that when they get…

Had a good run and then pulled back with the market. The market is waiting for a price settlement for the Potash with the Indians. He keeps adding to it on pullbacks.

Produces gravel in Fort McMurray. Management owns about 44%. Have produced enormous profits relative to their market cap but the stock trades for 5X trailing earnings. If you believe in the oil sands and the construction of these big plants and roads, this is the play for you because they are pretty much the dominant…

Had a nice uptrend with a correction in May. Trying to consolidate and is forming a triangular pattern. Accumulate but use a stoploss at its lows.

No one covers this story. When he looked at the numbers he got VERY interested. They just started to ramp up in terms of production. It should rise into Q1’17. They could earn 20-40 cents. He has 3 year warrants. Diamond prices are at a multi year low. This will start to get it on…

Up 297% on a year-to-date basis. Some good samples out of nearby Ivanhoe mines in Mongolia. A private placement was announced on October 3 of 10 million units of one dollar and warrants for one half shares. There is still enthusiastic buying.

This is a cannabis company that has a new product line for pets. He generally dislikes the sector and the associated valuations. You are betting this sector is going to explode and it is hard to know which companies will survive. It has a $600 million valuation on $20 million in sales.

It has gone ka-boom lately. It is a real company. It has revenues. It has contracts outside of the company. It will be a white label supplier of oil. It could go higher.

There should be some news. They have some drug developments coming through the pipeline, and some of their partners are going to have some news. You might get more activity and more interest in the stock over the balance of the year. They’ve done a couple of non-diluted financings and loaded up the balance sheets…

Does rapid testing for clinical diagnostics. Has held in quite well. Going through an approval process and it looks like things will be okay. Leveraged earnings are pretty big. Likes the company but is not actively buying it.

Robotic surgery. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG-Q) has a monopoly. This company thinks they have a better system. Have to go through FDA procedures. If it works they’ll be able to share the giant market. Have a long road ahead of them.

(Market Call Minute.) Doing two phase 2 trials. Good results. (See Top Picks).

Akumin on the TSX will migrate to NASDAQ which will be a big catalyst. It trades in U.S. dollars. They're a medical imaging company, a space ripe for consolidation. AKU is also in artificial intelligence. (Analysts' price target: $6.00)

Had a small speculative holding and is looking at shaving off some of the gain he's made. Has an extremely interesting product for creating extremely high quality protein. By June/06 they may have approval to be able to use the product in broader bases. Highly speculative. A go up or blow up investment. Be careful.

Canopy Growth (WEED-T) vs Aurora Cannabis (ACB-T) The battle of the titans. Both companies do good things. He favors Canopy as it has a lower risk diversified growth strategy in 12 different facilities. He also likes the deal with Constellation for further diversification. Aurora is expected to grow with the expansion of the new facility…

A leader in the cannabis sector. They're extractors of CBD oil for medical purposes. All these players want to come in, but the bottleneck is in obtaining the oil. See the CNN documentary to understand what they do. Earnings trend has just begun, as when Prohibition was over. (Analysts’ price target is $30.82)

They have been paying out too much in dividends so the book value has been slipping. It looks like the company is rolling over. The fair market value is 13% under where it is trading. He sees more downside than upside.

For years NEPT was in partnerships where they were extracting Omega-3 oils from krill oil and selling that to consumers. Now they're taking that extraction technology and applying it to the cannabis oil market. He's in a wait-and-see spots. The fundamentals don't back the move up in the stock. He has a small short on…

Estimates have been shaved back 10% in the past 90 days. Their work on arthritic drugs is interesting and phase 3 is looking good. They are watching it. If the drug is approved it would be positive for the company.

Great company. They have some government-funded assets, but are also expanding more into the private pay. There is a lot of growth there. If you are a REIT investor, you want to have exposure to the seniors living space, because it is going to outperform any of the other REITs over the next cycle.

Been around for a long time. Has a broad range of technologies. Have recently signed licensed for Virusmax, which can double the yield of virus production for vaccinations. Bull semen-sexing technology. Have some very interesting technologies. Watching it very closely. Like the company.

A really neat little company. Good funding of their R&D. They have revenue and operating profits. Agreement with Cardinal will be good for getting tests done in US.

We are seeing a new secular uptrend in 10 years bonds. It will put pressure on bond proxies like EMA-T. If your time is more than 3-6 months then okay, but if longer then look at something with pricing power like telcos or REITs.

(A Top Pick Sept 28/11. Up 22.45%.) Getting close to being fully valued and he is starting to Sell it. Has had phenomenal growth and is very conservatively managed. Doesn’t see much upside so is basically holding it for its yield.

A fairly small company. Management understands the mine. They have some natural gas storage. The price of natural gas in Alberta has been depressed and at some points in the summer it was down to zero. Having the storage facilities allows them to hold the gas from the market until the price comes back. They…

This does energy services and energy marketing, so they are a reseller of different products such as natural gas. Now they’ve just gotten into solar. Have done test marketing both in California and New York, which has gone well, so they are going to start to roll it out across the country. They are also…

(A Top Pick July 26/13. Up 20.51%.) Oilfield services. Have done a bang up job of acquiring lots of companies. Have been very good at raising money. At this point they have to digest, and prove to investors that all the stuff they’ve put together, they can make it work in a better way. If…

Interesting technology. May take a long time.

Acquired the old United Keno Hill mines in the Yukon last June. One of the highest grade silver camps in the world.

Has held in remarkably well given the manufacturing slowdown in Canada. One of his largest holdings in one of his funds. One of the 2 cheapest stocks in the universe that he covers. A really strong ROE at 23%. Trading at 4.5X Price to Free Cash Flow, so is really cheap. Dividend yield of 6.5%.…

It is a pass through operator, running Jazz airlines for Air Canada. AC-T has a habit of cancelling contracts. The risk of this is now none as they have extended their deal out to 2035. The pilot agreements are secured out to then also. They have good return on operations and have a good return…

Recently went public. He really likes it. It has been weak like every offering this summer. He was looking for those that use the proceeds for positive change. They are buying two more trucks and plan to look for more acquisitions. He thinks that could happen pretty quickly. They have shown acquisitions to be accretive…

This equipment producer is active in Europe and Italy creating renewable natural gas from composting as well as methane collection in garbage dumps in North America. He likes their long term prospects.

We're in the early innings of automation. ATA supplies this to and consults the energy, healthcare, industrial and maufacturing industries. ATA is in the thick of it. Stricter regulations in these industries demands precision that's found in automation. ATA has fine management. They've been on a buying spree. Their chart is very bullish and the…

Because of overpayment of dividends, the BV per share has been sliding. Has a terrific yield of 8.7%. The dividend is covered, but barely. Doesn’t like these kinds of companies because it is like the ground is giving out beneath your feet. Has a target of about $7, but it cut through strong support at…

Flight simulation is a good space because air travel is increasing. CAE has alot of existing relationships. Reasonably price, but she doesn't see a compelling reason to buy it.

A name where there was a lot of growth priced in on the IPO. The company is still growing, but not profitably yet. However, it is so oversold and we are starting to see the bounce. That is probably the end of tax loss selling and you could see a nice trade in it here.

Sharp management. They are acquiring diverse businesses and funding a dividend with it. Attracting investors and capital with their dividend on both the preferred and common stocks. They generally take a majority position. The one caveat is Western exposure. Expect the dividend will grow.

They had an earnings release recently that the market didn't like. Still a growth story. Well diversified internationally. Good insider participation. Demographic story on baby boomers needing accessibility aids. Trading at a cheaper valuation than I had been trading for a while. (Analysts’ price target is $18.75)

Make the winglets for the Honda. Ranks in the bottom third.

He held this in the past. It looks dangerous. He would wait for it to get down to the $1.35 level. It is almost micro cap and these companies can run into problems. Use the 100 day moving average. (Analysts’ price target is $2)

Management is outstanding. A new REIT run by knowledgeable people. Highest quality of apartment space in Canada, focusing on Toronto. A long term hold with a safe distribution. He owns it.

There are 2 commodities in the commodity sector that are still steaming hot. Coal and potash. This company owns 1 of each. This is a very interesting speculation if you believe coal prices are going to hold up. Looking at this one again.

(Top Pick Sep 10/14, Down 3.93%) It is too cheap. Office, industrial and retail in Quebec and Eastern Ontario. Their funding costs are dropping. They are thought to be slightly over levered. It has to grow more. It trades at about 10% discount to its NAV. Its properties are good and it should continue to…

Still likes the assets, management, and the huge shortage of high-quality apartments in markets like Toronto. A great holding.

Should one buy Dream, which pays no dividend and has dropped significantly in value or just buy its managed REITs and be happy with the 8% distribution? Really depends on your needs. If you need theincome or happy with the capital gains. This is the asset manager that manages the REITs. It also has a…

Owns a little. Canadian REITs have bounced off the bottom during the last couple of months, in part because of higher oil prices and higher commodity prices. That has benefited the entire sector. This operates in an area where rents are not regulated.

They pick up vintage, expensive handbags they find in Asia then sell them here in kiosks. Interesting business, but has performed poorly. He didn't buy it.

Canada’s newest REIT. He does not think there is a big reason for fear, but was unhappy with the debt level. He is waiting it out to see how it performs. They have top notch management. This is very similar to ACQ-T, but you own the real estate of the dealerships. 10.6% yield.

(Market Call Minute.) Calgary apartments. If you are a long term holder, maybe just wait. Stay on the sidelines for a little while. They may have a write-down in the future.

(A Top Pick March 20/13. Down 58%.)

Has done plenty of acquisitions. Continue to raise dividend. Bought two companies in the US and it looks good. A great, great company. Solid because they get their management fee even when the market goes down. Could sell themselves 5 years down the road.

(Market Call Minute) Fast growing. Business looks good. He is just starting to follow it.

A very effective mortgage lender. He has client funds in this. They operate in Canada and the US. Their advantage is that they are not bound by the kinds of restrictions that the banking sector is. Somewhat more risky, but at the same time are quite effective in how they operate. Returns have been quite…

Multi-residential REIT. Heavy exposure to western Canada, particularly Fort McMurray. Started in 2005 with high yield and payout ratios well in excess of 100%. Management has increased free cash flow and reduced payout ratio to 150%. Buy for growth, not yield.

This would not be his favourite. This is a multi-family REIT. Some of the ones he likes a little bit better have internal management and better balance sheets. If you are buying this, you are really buying it for the yield. You can get better risk/reward with similar yield with something like a Pure Multi-Family…

The only death care stock in Canada. It is solid from the demographics alone but they are also consolidating within the industry. He thinks they will eventually be sold to a larger player. They have a good land holding. (Analysts’ target: $24.88).

They market a natural sweetener, which doesn't give the insulin response that sugar does. Available in health food stores. Worth watching.

They are growing into Ontario. Their recent earnings really caught on with an impressive number. It was not even a full quarter of results from the recent acquisition. They have 20 year contracts. 16 times earnings. (Analysts’ target: $51.80).

Support and resistance? He's a bit concerned about the chart. The support level will be important, if the downtrend breaks and it can close above, he'd be adding exposure. Take a bit of exposure and see what happens. If it breaks above, complete the position. And if it breaks below, reduce exposure.

(Past Top Pick, Sept.18, 2017,Up 41%) A car repair chain. They're a consolidator in this space and now have covered in the U.S. Consistent ROE generators. A core holding.

He used to own this. The CEO he knew suddenly and abruptly resigned. They brought a new CEO but then there were reimbursement problems. Their balance sheet is not pristine. Centric doesn’t look like a quick fix.

One of the leading western Canadian media companies. Have about 50% of their revenues in newspapers in western Canada, which tends to be local community daily papers, so no competition with the big national advertisers. Also have an information services business of trade publications, training courses, manuals, etc.

There are always big expectations for cash flow coming from grains, and then it never actually comes. It looks like they are on the up and up now, but be careful because they could have some earnings misses as well. He wouldn’t own this until they could show that they could generate cash flows and…

(Top Pick Jan 20/14, Up 37.08%) Management owns a very large percentage of the stock. LNF-T owns the properties under the stores. He sold some off because it ran up so far and would buy it back on a dip.

This typically does really well from April to July, but once you get into July, it tends to move lower. We are now past the period of seasonal strength. Stay away from this for now. There are other opportunities.

His third-largest holding in his personal portfolio. Has a product that goes into the USB port on your computer and allows you to reach into any computer, where you have authorization, around the world. Has been trading in a band of 3.5 cents to 5 cents. Currently at break even on earnings and cash flow.…

Dead money for quite a few years. The technology was tied to laptops but now everyone is using tablets. Thinks earnings will come through with earnings from Samsung agreement.

One of his favourite stories. A software company that continued to do very well on top line and bottom line. Increased their dividend. Cash flows are very strong. Has started to see price increases on their software. Expects you will see margins expand over the next couple of quarters. 3.5% dividend yield.

Their unique cameras will be transported up on the Soyuz spaceship.

This is in the programmatic advertising space, which is exploding. Just reported and knocked it out of the park, but the stock went down. Great management which owns a lot of the company, and the Board of Directors is very savvy. Quite inexpensive and their ability to grow is exceptional. They also have the ability…

Have an open source operating system for cell phones similar to Windows. Allows manufacturing of cell phones much cheaper. Have signed 5 contracts already. Great management team. (Similar to Google’s android?)