Aritzia Inc., Loblaw Companies Ltd and More at 52-week Highs & Lows (Oct 13-19)

They do oil/gas fluids. Profitable company and revenues are growing by leaps and bounds. They have a lot of debt and have taken on quite a bit of debt and have virtually no cash in the bank. Just did a $10 million raise and sold 6.6 million shares, which they needed to pay down some…

It's grown only by buying companies and carries a lot of debt. There's more pricing power now after consolidation in this space. But GFL trades at too high a multiple.

Friday 4pm press releases. A lot of Canadian companies do it at noon and it is a big price shock. Doesn’t think 4pm is a strategy. It’s heading down. If it can jump above $0.60 then it might break out.

(A Top Pick Sept 9/16. Down 2.7%.) Has a world-class property in Argentina and a world-class CEO who has done this before. They’ve raised money from various sophisticated institutions at about the current price. At some point, given lithium prices and electrification of cars it is going to get taken out. Highly speculative, but if…

(A Top Pick Feb 10/21, Up 27%) A movement in fertilizer prices due to nitrogen plant shut downs in Europe and there are logistics issues due to hurricane Ida. Government sanctions on Belarus has kept prices up for fertilizers. If higher price action continues, should rebalance.

Really likes it. Best performing on the TSX this year, second only to IPL. 2020 was a banner year. Pioneer Pipeline sale approved, and proceeds will be used to pay down debt. Helped by commodity cycle. Lucrative project pipeline. He cautions that it is energy and a small cap, so will be volatile. Long term,…

Participating in the commodities boom but not doing as well as others. There are competitors in the space. A big shipper in metallurgical coal. The production of steel will be needed and this company will profit. There will be a strong market for it. The stock is more cyclical than the underlying business.

They have a corridor of office space in downtown Toronto, more of a boutique style of building. It was hoped they would garner above-market rents and have started to roll this out to market, but the issue is that it is a more difficult market. We have not seen a lot of leasing yet. We…

Insurance companies have been quite sleepy this year. Stock's been flat since 2019. Not a ton of dividend growth. Good positive exposure to rising rates longer term. Well managed. He owns MFC instead, with more catalysts, cheaper, higher dividend yield. Trimmed weighting to insurance broadly and moved into utilities, renewables, and infrastructure.

Likes it and its sector. Trade at a healthy premium. In the right markets. Growth has traditionally been there. Fairly valued today. Look for pullbacks to buy.

Working to diversify, including owning Ontario real estate. Undergoing a review to calculate capital differently which, if successful, would let them compete more aggressively on loan products. Regional banks are trades for him, in and out. Prefers this to LB.

Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…

Pays an 11% dividend yield. How are they paying that? They probably hold a lot of Canadian infrastructure but those stocks pay only 3-4%. The US component is also dragging down that yield. There's a mismatch here in holdings vs. the 11% yield. The total return will probably be 5-7%, but the high yield will…

New CEO. About as textbook a succession planning as you'll ever see. Louis Vachon leaves pretty big shoes. It's been the best performer of the big 6 banks under his tenure. New CEO has been the COO, career NA employee for 23 years, digitally savvy, ran capital markets, known to the board and investors. Business…

(A Top Pick Sep 29/20, Up 55%) It is a great blend of internal and external growth. It has a 15-20% loss-to-lease embedded in their portfolio. You will see market rent growth from here but they don't need it. It is easily worth more than $19 dollars based on cap rate.

It's had a good run. Was his top pick in March 2020. IN recent quarters, they've been simplying their structure. What's held their valuation was Weston Foods, which they are divesting. So, the company will focus on Loblaw and Choice Properties. Higher costs have impacted the former during the pandemic. But investments in home delivery…

(A Top Pick Sep 15/20, Up 31%) The gains are surprising. They've invested in long term areas, namely e-commerce. Costs to protect employees from Covid will roll off. Shoppers during Covid flocked to the top supermarkets, though are now returning to the discount chains, which Loblaw also owns. She's waiting for a pullback to add…

Over time it will come back. They have a strong position in liquor retailing and have moved into Cannabis. They are clearly going to be a survivor. They are going to be able to consolidate.

It has been a disappointing stock to him. They have had some hiccups, but likes their asset base. The problem is that synthetic diamonds are taking away from overall demand. They have not been operating as well as they should have been. He might prefer Lucara Diamond (LUC-T).

They've been around for a while and own a lot of the Ring of Fire's nickel deposits. Ontario was supposed to open infrastructure so these deposits would get mined. It's a government and infrastructure play. But NOT has a lot of debt, with no cash flow. Government involvement can work out long-term.

The price of tin is less important to this company then it is to other tin producers, because their grade is so high. The grade is about 10X the average mine grade for tin worldwide. Thinks they will be able to announce production finance fairly shortly. The construction schedule will take some time. The Congo…

A great small cap producer. Trading at a slight discount to competitors. Gives you good access to what will be consolidated. Could be an M&A target.

One of the best in the sector in Canada. On a medium- to long-term basis, really likes nat gas. Much more sustainable, as they produce the greenest nat gas than peers. All kinds of free cashflow at these prices. Might see a pullback in the next 6 months, providing a buying opportunity. If you don't…

Their debt has always been an issue. Trading at in-line levels for their multiple. Does not check his boxes in his fund.

Owns 8% of the company and is the second largest holder right now. Not the most exciting holdings but they are very profitable and gives good cashflow. Well over 10 years of development drilling. 1.9x EV to 22 cashflow and 39% free cashflow yield. Expects them to initiate a healthy dividend next year. Net zero…

A Colombian natural gas producer which enjoys a favourable U.S. price of US$3.60. Production will rise as more customers and pipeline capacity are found. There's a shortage of natural gas in the country. It pays a nice dividend of 5.6%. He has a $5 target. Buy below $3.40. (Analysts’ price target is $6.09)

These days, you want to own the larger cap players. They all plan to cut back spending, reduce debt, increase dividend, buy back shares. Won't be massive increases in exploration and production. Oil is not going away.

Likes assets, but not the setup for that size of company. How will they attract capital? Ability to do M&A is hampered. Two choices: higher dividend yield with lower growth, or consolidate with someone else. If oil goes higher, stock could take off. If not, it will be a parked car until a catalyst.

These days, you want to own the larger cap players. They all plan to cut back spending, reduce debt, increase dividend, buy back shares. He owns CNQ instead. Won't be massive increases in exploration and production. Oil is not going away.

Poor price momentum and high volatility, so he's shorting. This is a "dangerous short" after plunging so far. This is uninvestable. heavy debt and a pays big dividend, though the payout ratio is okay. Maybe okay for the long term.

Undervalued. Line 3 just completed. Where prices are, capacity will be maxed out. Line 5 issue will hopefully be resolved. Recent acquisition is a great asset long-term. Enough cashflow to maintain and increase dividend. Yield is 6.35%. (Analysts’ price target is $55.34)

Trading at 2.2x enterprise value to cashflow, which is cheaper than earlier this year. Q1 of next year should see a material share buyback. Trading at a 30% free cashflow yield. The low valuation will be rerated. Could trade at a 5x multiple, which would be a 153% upside. (Analysts’ price target is $12.19)

It had a roller coaster ride over the last five years but is running on all cylinders right now. They would benefit immensely from rising commodity prices such as energy. They will be able to increase dividends.

(A Top Pick Jan 07/20, Down 17%) COVID-19 crushed this. It was trading at book value a year ago. He still likes it even though it has been painful. He is sticking with it.

Management owns a large component of the company. Exposure to nat gas, with the current pricing very attractive.

Owns it for the longevity of the assets and miss pricing. Leverage has always been a problem. Trading at 44% free cashflow yield at $70 oil. Fair multiple is 6x, which would bring free cashflow to 15%. Would get a $20 target with this. The stock could continue to work. On the cusp of return…

Had trimmed his position in the high $3 range. Bought back in around the same price. It is small but it is deep value. This is where the multi baggers are. While the market cap may be small, the asset base is good. Expects them to be massive returners of capital. Next year, could trade…

Nat gas stocks have done extremely well off the bottom. This one is pricier than others. Other names are more compelling, such as TOU, PEY, ARX, or AAV.

We are on a different cycle than in the past. The business model has shifted which is now positive for oil macro. Oil production growth is no longer elastic to rising oil prices. They are now taking free cashflow and companies are now buying back stocks. There is an opportunity for a rerate. Owned it…

Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.

In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.

There is a rumour that Paramount has acquired a 9% holding in Nuvista. Paramount is outspending their cash flow and announced, if required, they may look to sell off assets and this could Nuvista. Both companies share prices have been pushed sharply lower as a result.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. One of their favourites in the sector. No debt and lots of cash. The stock is up 66% in the past year. A safer oil stock. The company continues to make the right moves. Dividend has started this year and they are buying back shares. Unlock…

Their acquisition improved their free cashflow profile. Trading at 4.5x EV to EBITDA. We should see multiple expansion. Maybe a 30-40% upside potential, where as other small cap stocks could offer double. A challenging environment for service stocks going forward.

Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.

TCW vs. CFW Issue for CFW has been the balance sheet. Lots of debt. Concerns about solvency. Upswing in the sector is helping them. Whereas TCW has a clean balance sheet with rising fundamentals that's all going to equity holders. TCW is a safer blue chip.

An oil stock in Egypt. Clean balance sheet. Everything looks good and it screens well, but he wakes up in the morning wondering what is happening in Egypt, and are they going to get paid from the government. He doesn’t mind this one, it is just that he can buy oil stocks in Canada and…

(A Top Pick Dec 08/20, Up 257%) Crude oil was significantly lower than it is today a year ago. There has been a lot of talk about what the oil companies can do, now that their cashflow is good. Continues to like it in the space.

(A Top Pick Sep 09/21, Up 41.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with WCP is progressing well. We now recommend trailing the stop (from $4.25) to $6.25. If triggered, this would all but guarantee a net investment return of 18%.

There are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.

They're in northeast BC where Tourmaline is consolidating land and assets, near LXE. So, LXE will become topical. LXE has reached an inflection point after acquiring a lot of land and pushed the Montney play to the northeast. Now, they need a lot of capital to move to full development. They're talking to potential buyers,…

He owns this and is under water on it. He bought more at $0.60. He made a mistake around their 3 year contract expiration -- he should have sold then. Management is working hard, but it has a lot of difficulties ahead. He is not going to double down on it. Good financials, next to…

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. It has shown a strong quarter reporting 7 cents per EPS vs the expected 5 cents. EBITDA has increased 39% with free cash flow increasing 55%. Shares trade at 8x EV to EBITDA, which is in the middle of their historic range. The momentum is…

Extracts protein from vegetables like canola, peas, and soy. Has 285 patents. There is negligible revenue despite the company being around for more than 20 years. Difficult to apply fundamental analysis. Too speculative for him. Need to see revenue and profit.

(A Top Pick Sep 24/20, Up 4%) Will benefit from the recovery. Safe dividend play. Dividend is relatively slight. Continues to buy for new clients.

Wellness drives CBD demand and there's more competition entering this space. The CBD market continues to expand into drinks and food. He used to own this, but sees better opportunities. But CWEB is one of the U.S. leaders in this crowded space, so it's okay. You want to be in this space.

In general terms still on a downtrend. Bearish big picture. Could get back into the 20 dollars.

Interesting technology, but not investible right now. A gadget that installs on commercial vehicles to reduce emissions and increase fuel efficiency. "A science project" for 17 years of R&D. Losing money, negligible revenue, diluting shares, burning cash. He prefers more established companies. One to watch down the road.

Has diversified into other areas than straight flower production. Focusing on the US for cannabis. HEXO will survive in Canada. Has not seen much this year. There will be an acceleration soon. Has a dominant position in Quebec. Would look at buying into it.

Has been a past top pick. A company he likes. There is a lot of tailwind behind renewable natural gas. Is positioned well for this. The stock price has pulled back from highs. Had a number of issues with the company and projects. It is now subsiding and the company should have a tailwind for…

They are not getting ahead. It should be okay, but you have to manage the balance sheet and the capital structure and so far they are not doing a good job of that.

Doesn't own because of he doesn't understand the geopolitics in Papua New Guinea. This is why he prefers investing in North America whose geopolitics he does understand. Otherwise the company looks good: properties, production, metals in the ground. He has a $12.50 target and his company has this as a buy.

A copper play in Arizona. They put acidic solution in the great to dissolve the copper then recover it. Upfront capital is low, so there's a potentially high return later. They have key permits in place to turn this project around. Their 2016 study implies a 40% return.

It's one of his anchor stocks. It's been lagging in price, but so have many silver companies. He still likes this among Mexican-based silver producers. It has just started a gold mine in the US which helps diversify away from silver. They keep adding mines and value, and will have leverage to the prices of…

Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…

He likes the deposit and the CEO. They tried to finance them but Eagle beat them. You need to be concerned about the very recent revenue grab by the government of the Dominican Republic. It will be interesting to see how this works out. A great deposit and a great management team.

Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.

He likes their recent deal with Barrick. JG controls the real estate in Japan while Barrick spends money on exploration.

(Top Pick Mar 8/11, Down 65.85%)

One of his recent “Bottom Fish” that he has put a little bit of tension on. They have the Cheechoo project, about 15 km south east of Eleonore, which is now in production, almost meeting its 300 ounce per year over put. The Cheechoo is a low grade system, but have been discovering that there…

Came out with really good results in Dominican Republic. Resource hopefully comes out by the end of the year.

Have received a notice of intent to make a takeover offer from one Australian zinc producer. Offer is at $3.90 a share. With take advantage of the market liquidity and usually money to advantage.

Likes the graphite space quite a bit. There is a move towards using graphite in electric vehicles and batteries, so the space is doing quite well. Have 4 deposits in Ontario with good proximity to infrastructure. Excellent management team.

It is pure extraction. There are probably 3 or 4 of them. They are a leader. There are not too many companies here that are profitable and these guys are one of them. They do toll extracting for clients as well as getting their own Cannabis and extracting from them. They make a great margin.

(A Top Pick Apr 27/20, Up 16%) Covid has indirectly increased their business. Growing organically and via acquisitions. Reasonable multiple. Either multiple expansion or a takeover target.

Don't get scared of parabolic moves. The chart looks very good. It has shot up in the last 6 weeks. Its next move could be just under $6 pretty quickly. Relative strength vs. the S&P looks very good. However, expect volatility. Own a small holding.

Has a product installed in school buses. One of them is camera systems, security systems, as well as safety features for buses. Has an agreement with the TTC for safety.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Likes the valuation but there needs to be some execution and growth must resume. Investors love to hate the stock so positive news tends to move the stock more. Ok to own a small weighting. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

They record information on a digital basis (voice to text) and from cameras. A steady recurring revenue stream. Earnings are expected to be break even in 2020. He thinks there are better opportunities out there. He thinks it has hit its lows.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Cash position is strong despite revenues falling in 2020 compared to the large order they received in the prior year. Margins have improved. It continues to secure orders. High risk but doing many things right. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free