Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA SPDR Materials ETF XLB-N TOP PICK Feb 21, 2007

Top Short It is at the very top end where at similar points there have been major corrections. Risk/reward is starting to turn negative. A one-month and three-month average of the daily breadth shows a lot of good news has been priced in already.
$38.260

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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Seasonality is August to early October. It is a defensive sector. You are better off to hold off on this, this year.

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This is chemicals in the US. We are seeing slow growth with a bump up from Trump. It is positive on a fundamental basis, technically it looks good and it is strong from a seasonal point of view.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 23/16. Up 2.86%.) One of the sectors that actually didn’t benefit from the Trump rally in November and December. This has really been performing at market, and hasn’t had a strong run at all. We are now entering into its non-favourable period.

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This is made up of the biggest names in the materials sector. The sector is showing really good relative strength. Really good support at around $51.

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An ETF where you could look at any individual component, because they are big enough in the US that you are not walking into a landmine. Chart shows a nice break out earlier in the year, which was pretty positive. If you don't own individual names, then this is a good place to be. One of the strongest sectors in both Canada and the US for the next 6 months.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick, Oct. 30, 2017, Up 2%) Has held up compared to other commodities. Has had an uptrend since early 2016, but the USD remains a major influence. He still likes it. Positive China news will push this up.

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Materials have underperformed. They finish their seasonality in early-May, but this year they haven't outperformed the market and only now is starting to see strength. Trade talk confirmation will push this higher over the next month.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/22, Down 11%) Very cyclical. Not a good sector seasonally right now, plus we have the slowing economy. Does well late October until early May. Perhaps wait until we see some sort of bottom in the market, when cyclicals tend to do better.
TOP PICK

Good exposure to chemical stocks (70%) of portfolio. Metals and mining also a component. Expecting strength in commodities with strong economy. Material stocks tend to perform well in January-May as well. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 19/24, Up 9%)

Has recently sold position. Not as bullish on materials. Expecting rotation out of this sector. Material sector usually peaks in May.