Gordon Reid
Tri Point Homes, |Inc
TPH-N
PAST TOP PICK
Sep 19, 2017
(A Top Pick Oct 18/16. Up 3%.) A relatively small homebuilder in a handful of states, primarily in the south west, and branded under a lot of different names. They also have some exposure to Texas. Thinks the whole group will move because household formation is still in a low trend. It has moved in the last 3 decades between 500,00 and 2.5 million units a year. Right now, it is just over 1 million. To keep up with population growth, 1.5 million has to be done. These builders are all very inexpensive, most trading below 10X earnings, and he thinks they have a 15%-18% growth metric in front of them. This is a good entry point.
This is now one of the top 10 homebuilders in the US. Have a great management team. Very under covered. Just put out their 1st consolidated earnings guidance for 2015. Has a large inventory of high-quality building lots concentrated in California and Colorado.
Trading at 8 times earnings with a good cash flow yield of 11%. The home builders group has strong orders and pricing. Labour and land costs hold them back, but are regional. There is a disconnect between demand and supply.
Home builder space. Mainly on the US west coast. Not a short-term trade. A long-term trend. US homes have been underbuilt for a long time. Inexpensive, at 8x earnings. In his small-cap portfolio. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $23.64)
Entry-level homebuilder. The industry has lots of moving parts and negative news. Don't let this sway you. We're still in the nascent part of the cycle. There's a home supply problem. EPS could touch $4 in the next two years.
(A Top Pick Dec 16/20, Up 51%) Order book is full, backlog is high. Valuations are very attractive. Demand is still strong. As a cyclical, you always have to watch for it to turn.
(A Top Pick Dec 16/20, Up 60%) Inexpensive stock, around 6.5-7x earnings. Good backlog. Executing well. Up strongly already, and the bid should go higher.
Owns shares in small cap portfolio. Company performing well counter intuitively to higher interest rates. Much better managed companies than last real estate crash. Dramatic need for new housing creating business opportunity. Excellent business for long term.
(A Top Pick Oct 18/16. Up 3%.) A relatively small homebuilder in a handful of states, primarily in the south west, and branded under a lot of different names. They also have some exposure to Texas. Thinks the whole group will move because household formation is still in a low trend. It has moved in the last 3 decades between 500,00 and 2.5 million units a year. Right now, it is just over 1 million. To keep up with population growth, 1.5 million has to be done. These builders are all very inexpensive, most trading below 10X earnings, and he thinks they have a 15%-18% growth metric in front of them. This is a good entry point.