Stockchase Opinions

Kim Bolton MongoDB, Inc. MDB-Q BUY ON WEAKNESS Jan 22, 2019

Great growth rates, supplying networking software. Has done gangbusters in recent years. Sold it in Q4, but still follows it. $60 price target. Very expensive now. Wants to buy it, but at lower levels.
$81.230

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Technology
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COMMENT

A cloud company that does database management, beloved by app developers. It's soared 10x since its IPO less than four years ago, including a 173% run in 2020. This (and cloud stocks) peaked earlier this year at $428 in February then plunged to $238 in its May lows. Since then, it's roared back to $390 and now $350 today. It's volatile. At the end of June, it lost some momentum with a secondary offering. The stock is down 2% YTD. It's growing 32% annually, but is pricey at 30x this year's PE estimates. (Snowflake is at 70s, though.) He's conflicted.

BUY
Technical analysis: The chart shows it's poised to catch up with the sector and show upwards performance on its own. Also see his thoughts on XLK and the 10-year yield this day.
WATCH
It reports Monday. Unfortunately, it reports on the heels of Omicron and we'll learn more about soon. It got hit hard like so much tech today as money manager dump risky stocks. Unfortunately, it reports on the heels of Omicron.
RISKY

It has more than tripled though remains down over 30% from its late-2020 peak. Generative AI is a huge boost for them which is why shares have caught fire. Last year they turned a profit and this year their profits should double. The valuation is huge, but the street predicts it will become the King of the Cloud.

BUY

It's one of the best enterprise software companies. They pivoted and are making money.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Technical analysis by Dan Fitzpatrick

Like Nvidia and Supermicro, this has a lot more room to run. They just signed a deal with Amazon. Their growth warrants a 25% upside target. From July till recently, this stock was sideways. Now, it's hitting resistance from $435-440, but if it breaks above that it will hit $545-550. Last December, shares were clobbered by a sell-off at high volumes, but this decline has run its course as share return to before that sell-off. Buy this on pullbacks. Last week, it tested its floor of support (50-day moving average) but that happened in low volumes. Volume is key -- when a stock trades sideways at light volumes, it means institutional support. Otherwise, it would be hit harder at higher volumes on bad days. Last Friday, this stock broke out, indicating that this stock is safe to buy in weakness. Also, there's another month before it reports, so there's plenty of time for the stock to consolidate before institutions find a catalyst to buy more.  Run by a great CEO, but his lone concern is that this had such a strong run in the first half of 2023. Maybe it has digested its gains and is ready for another run.

COMMENT

Growth has slowed, which has confounded people. This has fallen so far from its high that you can't sell it. Their last quarter disappointed.

DON'T BUY

Plays outside the data centres by preparing the data for processing. Flat since summer, probably because that particular segment of the ecosystem is a bit crowded. He'd look at IBM instead.

WATCH

They report Monday. Last year, these enterprise software companies were in the doghouse, until CRM reported excellent numbers, so this stock soared.

BUY

A 12-month price target of $322, now at $280, so still a decent runway. Visualization of AI. Works closely with CSCO and DELL.