Jason Mann
GreenFirst Forest Products
GFP-X
PAST TOP PICK
Sep 01, 2022
(A Top Pick Sep 07/21, Down 15%) Today it's cheap, versus long-term expectations. Trading in line with peers. Lumber companies have been trading sideways at best on fears of major slowdown in housing. They're discounting Armageddon, and he doesn't see that happening. IFP bought 16%, and they're not done.
It's new in this space. A small-cap. Well-known management team. It was a shell at first then they bought a lumber producer. They did a huge rights offering which popped the stock then it fell back down. They used the cash raised to buy a number of lumber mills cheaply. This trades at 2.2x EBITDA at $500 lumber; the price is now above $600. It's an optimization story as lumber prices, he thinks, will continue to rise.
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