Stockchase Opinions

Kevin Burkett First Capital Realty FCR-T HOLD May 26, 2021

A misunderstood name. People saw it as bricks and mortar retail. Its exposure to any retail is in favourable categories such as groceries, medical, department stores. Not big box or malls. Still likes it, though it's not the value it was. Prefers industrial, commerical. Worries about residential, as the rents get capped.
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TOP PICK

They own the finest portfolio of grocery-anchored shopping centres in the world, 22 million Sq. Ft + 24 million Sq. Ft in the future, located in thriving neighbourhoods of density and income growth. It used to trade at a premium to NAV, but at a discount in the past 5 years, during which it was one of the worst-performing stocks. Holds a great portfolio, though struggles that they trade at a discount to NAV. Not surprised that an activist investor has come aboard. Good growth ahead. (Analysts’ price target is $18.71)

TOP PICK

It owns retail shopping centres across Canada focused on grocery and pharmacy and is in the best markets. The strength and quality of its tenants is good and it has one of the best shopping centre portfolios globally. It trades at a great discount to the private market value of its real estate net asset value. He agrees with the company's estimate of a share price of $23. Has had some shareholder activism lately and he is hopeful for a strategic review. Yield is 4.7%.   Buy 4  Hold 3  Sell 1.


(Analysts’ price target is $18.71)
TOP PICK

Favourite investment in grocery-anchored shopping centres. Very defensive, with necessity-based tenants. Owns the best portfolio globally in this space. Can double size of portfolio based on what they own today. Board refreshment with timely skills. 35% discount to NAV. Yield is 5.57%.

(Analysts’ price target is $19.31)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 28/22, Down 6%)

Best idea today. 35% discount to NAV, with attractive distribution yield while you wait for the gap to close. Owns key pharmacy and grocery across the key urban centres in Canada. Resilient. Great setup.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 29/22, Down 15%)

Highest quality globally of grocery-anchored shopping centres. 40% discount to NAV. Activism has been an overhang. Defensive, fundamentals couldn't be better. Keep holding.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 30/23, Down 7%)

Very constructive on it. Best grocery-anchored shopping centre portfolio globally. Urban, only in key centres in Canada. 30% discount to intrinsic value, 5.5% yield while you wait. 3-4% earnings growth. More upside.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 30/23, Up 0.1%)

One of his largest weights. Core portfolio of necessity-based real estate, 80% grocery anchored. 35% discount to NAV today. Additional space coming online in next 3 years, which should help reduce leverage and help earnings growth. Great name in this environment. Yields close to 6%.

TOP PICK

One of his largest holdings. One of the highest-quality grocery-anchored shopping-centre portfolios globally. Trades at upwards of 25% discount to private market value. Management seeking to increase value by selling non-core properties and reducing debt. Yield is 4.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.30)
TOP PICK

Aims to own the finest grocery-anchored real estate across Canada. High quality. He thinks it's the best globally. 30% discount to NAV. Get paid to wait while the value gap closes. Goal is to grow earnings and NAV by 3% a year for 3 years. Defensive plus growth. Yield is 5.3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.11)
TOP PICK

Pre-eminent portfolio in the space. Necessity-based real estate in Canada's urban centres, with half in Toronto. Already owns future development space. Near peak occupancy, so there's potential for positive inflection in retail rents. Good growth prospects, at 25% discount to NAV. Yield is 5.14%.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.02)