Stockchase Opinions

Gordon Reid Anthem Inc ANTM-N TOP PICK Jan 19, 2021

A large US health insurer (40 million Americans) and highly profitable. They'll make $26/share next year. Cheap at 12x earnings, and at least a 7% free cash flow. No, health insurance won't be in trouble when the Democrats take office, because about 170 million American hold private health insurance plans based on a 75% satisfaction rate. So, it's unlikely there'll be a radical change in American healthcare. (Analysts’ price target is $365.86)
$324.890

Stock price when the opinion was issued

medical services
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BUY
ANTM vs. UNH He owns ANTM instead of UNH. Valuation of 6-8 multiple points less expensive than UNH. Well managed, growth rates are very good, and medical cost ratios are inline.
BUY
In the space, he owns ANTM instead of UNH. Both have HMOs and PBMs. ANTM is half the size of UNH, cheaper, and it has as good, if not better, future prospects. 5-year chart shows them running neck-and-neck. Medicare for all is a long way out, given the huge US debt.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 19/21, Up 39%) Still likes. Trading at 15x earnings, quite inexpensive. Major competitor, UNH, trades 6 points higher. Adding insureds, now up to 43M in the US. Growing well. Expected EPS for 2022 is $29.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 11/21, Up 57%) We just don't have this kind of insurance company in Canada. Blue Cross and Blue Shield dominate in about 13 states. More of a value play than UNH, though he owns both. Both executing exceptionally well.
TOP PICK
Health insurance is exciting. Their valuation trades at a decent 15x earnings. He targets $29 EPS this year. Their growth rate is solid double digits. A great area to hide if you worry about inflation. Revenues are protected, because government programs adjust for inflation. They insure 43 million Americans and he predicts 49 million by the end of this year. Aging demographics are a boost. (Analysts’ price target is $490.21)
HOLD
UNH is a very good company, but not as good a stock because of valuation. He owns ANTM instead, trading about 6 multiple points less than UNH, with equally good growth metrics. Higher multiple stocks are selling off. Neither has supply chain issues.
BUY
Growth vs. value is in play. Companies in healthcare give you earnings stability and predictability, safety. Not an extreme multiple, over $28 EPS this year. Healthcare is a good area, ANTM is a good choice.
BUY
They insure 44 million Americans, and are partially insulated from inflation and supply chain problems. Likes it. Growing well. Medicare and Medicaid programs allow ANTM to maintain their margins. UNH has also done very well, but ANTM trades at a lower multiple.
TOP PICK
A leader in managed care. Building out pharmacy benefit manager to become increasingly cost-competitive and vertically integrated. Decent valuation. Yield is 1.06%. (Analysts’ price target is $561.52)
BUY
They just rebranded and the ticker is now ELV. About 50% of their business comes from the commercial insurance market, the rest from government contracts. Past recessions didn't really impact their business. They insure about 50 million US citizens. Their major peer is UnitedHealth, but he prefers Athem because its valuation its 5 PE points lower.