Opinions
Craig Millar A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary N/A Jan 07, 2016
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Oil: There's no way knowing if oil can stay above $70; the oil price is tough to peg. It is a risk asset that responds to geopolitical tension, but after this tension in the Middle East the price will probably not all down, but find balance and this issue will become a non-topic. He wouldn't be surprised to see oil a little higher by year's end. Cash levels: remain high as investor sentiment remains cautious. April remains in the memory, and caution is a good thing for the market. The time to worry is when people are super optimistic. He'd like to see this money bleed into the market as optimism improves. US Midterms: He expects Trump to be less unpredictable and less chaotic because the Republicans need to maintain their power which will be investor-friendly.
A broad topic. Defensive means predictability: utilities, consumer staples. Stocks that pay dividends and/or buyback shares. Also, telcos. Utilities are super defensive, because they basically issue a yield. Also, do you want that income stream coming from Canada or the U.S., considering taxes.
His funds were down around 15-20% only 2 months ago, but now are up 2-3%. Everyone took their eyes off AI and focused on tariffs. And now it's returned to AI. Heavy spending on AI has continued without a decrease. Last year was capex spending by the hyperscalers on modeling (large language models), and this year it's on the applications.
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Premium contentYes, we had confirmation yesterday through the Fed meeting. When they released their comments, they used really aggressive language in terms of what they were expecting. We're a few months into tariffs, and we haven't seen any inflation yet, but it's in the pipeline.
Different estimates he's been reading indicate that it could take anywhere from 12-18 months for tariffs to be fully reflected in prices. It's expected to be quite severe. Along with unemployment, inflation is front and centre when it comes to the Fed moving on rates.
Consumers and businesses have been relying on credit to drive economic growth. More and more, over time, it's the stock market that's been a crucial factor in driving consumption. Despite the less-than-rosy economic backdrop, for markets to be where they are is a little bit surprising.
That's what people need to keep in mind. There is potential for some downward volatility.
It's a good habit to focus on companies that can control their own destiny on financing. Use the volatility that can come up in the market in your favour. From time to time, when markets are going to be very volatile, really good companies will sell off. It helps to know ahead of time what you might like to buy.
He tends to focus on cashflow. Companies that can generate good cashflow, and with strong balance sheets, have a lot of options in tough markets.
Yes, they have had a boost. Then they'll have to deploy capital to capture the trend.
For Canadian-centric income stocks (utilities, telecoms, banks), our economy is not as strong as the US. More likely that BOC will be lowering interest rates. This would mean that the competition between these income stocks and bond yields gets tighter, tending to drive money into these income stocks. In that case, valuations could still go higher.
Refocusing from China to countries with expanding manufacturing. China is moving from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy. The problem is that those markets are closed to retail investors.