A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Related posts

Nervous markets await Nvidia

Most recent Opinions go here

Be up to date, don’t miss your chance.

COMMENT
Small GDP contraction in April.

Not surprising, given the tariffs. We also saw a lot of pre-buying before tariffs took place. Expectations for May and June are also negative. So we'll probably have negative GDP growth for the quarter as a whole.

A softening, but not necessarily a recession, which is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. BOC has been on hold for the last 2 meetings. Arguably, if it were not for the potential impact that tariffs will have on inflation, they may have continued to cut. But they're on hold now so they can see the impact of tariffs.

Despite the negative number, stock markets have actually been quite healthy. TSX at all-time highs, and now US markets are hitting them too. That tells her that expectations are that trade deals will be announced, and they'll be manageable. Corporations will either adjust their supply chains or absorb some of the costs. Potentially not as inflationary as some expected. If so, and especially in Canada with its slowing economic growth and rising unemployment, that gives central banks more leeway to continue cutting interest rates.

COMMENT
July 9 -- significant?

Kind of moot. Trump administration has conveyed that if they're talking to the various trading partners, and they can't get a deal signed by that date, there will likely be extensions. Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada hopes to have a trade deal of some kind within 90 days, which would take us beyond July 9. She has the feeling that we'll see extensions.

COMMENT
Will tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars stay?

Hopes they get dealt with, as the US is our major trading partner. It's nice that we're trying to develop other trading partners, but that will take time. Hopefully, the new trade deal will address those issues.

COMMENT
Full position -- definition.

In her client portfolios, it would be anywhere from 2-4% of the overall portfolio.

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The Benefits of Long Term Investing: Less time and emotional stress

One of the issues with day traders and their lack of success is that most, after a while, get the feeling that they ‘need’ to be trading. But not every day provides good trading opportunities. Like a gambler in Vegas, staying at the table (or trading) longer than you should is a pretty-much guaranteed way to lose money. Day traders have difficulty stepping away from the game, as they fear missed opportunity. Long-term investing requires much less daily involvement. You do not need to monitor the market constantly or make split-second decisions. This makes it ideal for individuals with full-time jobs or other commitments, and it also reduces the emotional stress associated with reacting to every market movement. Day trading, on the other hand, is highly time-intensive and emotionally demanding, often leading to burnout and impulsive decisions.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

COMMENT
Lacklustre returns ahead.

Equity risk premium compares earnings yield on the S&P 500 with bond yields, and the bond yields have been a bit lower in the past 3-4 weeks. Effectively, equities are yielding as much as bonds. Historically, over the last 3 decades, that's been a harbinger of fairly pedestrian returns over the next 12 months. 

We can debate the economy and tariffs, but the starting point is that valuations for equities (particularly those south of the border) are expensive.

COMMENT
Are there exceptions to high valuations limiting growth?

Absolutely. Valuations are a terrible indicator of short-term returns, but a very good indicator of long-term returns. In the short term, the market's a popularity contest. That contest can go on for a very long time.

If we go back to the tech bubble in the 1990s, Greenspan talked about "rational exuberance" in 1996 and the market didn't peak until almost 2000.

COMMENT
Second half of 2025.

We're less than 2 weeks away from July 9, which is the 90-day reprieve from "liberation day". Who knows what will happen then? He has no idea how you strike trade deals in 2 weeks. There will be continued noise and friction within the whole system. We're seeing things slowing down. 

He's not one for using what the economy does to predict what the stock market's going to do. It typically works the other way around. But here we are pretty much where we started the year for the S&P. The TSX is up nicely. Starting to feel as though a lot of the good news is baked in, so perhaps we might just pause for breath.

Initial reactions by markets to tariffs were very spiky. But we've gotten used to them now. Yes, some businesses will be impacted. But investors tend to think longer term. At some point we'll come through this and get on with our lives.

COMMENT
Markets.

We have the classic situation with the market climbing a wall of worry, and there's no shortage of things to worry about. Middle East rocket fire, suspension (but not cancellation) of tariffs, US budget bill. Nevertheless, the market trudges higher, buoyed with some support from corporate earnings but mostly by improving sentiment (waning fear and panic from April).

Over time markets make higher highs, punctuated by short and sharp drawdowns that test the mettle of investors.

COMMENT
Perhaps investors are just tired.

There was a lot of frenetic trading activity late Q1 and early Q2. That's been to the benefit of some businesses such as owners of stock exchanges, investment banks, brokerages. You're right though, it does wear out investors, especially when they keep getting head fakes and kneejerk reactions that are frequently misinformation.

Investors would do well do learn the lesson of focusing on the fundamentals and owning good businesses. Don't bury your head in the sand on geopolitics, but don't be ruled by them. Shifting sands shift often. Easier to build robust portfolios that can weather macro headwinds.

COMMENT
Iran-Israel conflict caused concern, but not panic.

Right. What really took out some of the fear premium on hostilities was that, going into last weekend, the price of oil already had $10-15 of geopolitical risk baked in. But then the US waded in and dropped bombs, and the results of that are conflicting.

Latest relief rally in equity markets, especially in the US, is prompted by the very tepid, feeble, symbolic response by Iran to those strikes. Seems to have taken the worst-case scenario (strikes on oil infrastructure or closing of the Strait of Hormuz) off the table. Those events would have been very negative for the global economy and risk assets.

COMMENT
Big 6 Canadian banks, housing, economy.

His firm owns 3 in their dividend-growers mandate. Canadian banks are a cornerstone of a growth and income portfolio. Secular outperformers of the TSX. Dividends typically grow 6-8% a year on an average 3-3.5% dividend yield. Over a cycle, this gives you good line of sight to low-double-digit total shareholder return; the oligopoly of the 6 makes this sustainable. Stable, well managed, well governed, diversified.

Will pull all sorts of levers to overcome economic headwinds. He expects high single-digit earnings growth this year, notwithstanding the housing market.

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The Benefits of Long Term Investing: Lower costs and taxes

Long-term investors make fewer transactions, which means lower brokerage fees, bid/ask slippage and commissions. For U.S. investors, long term gains are taxed more favourably than short-term gains (not an issue for Canadian investors). Frequent buying and selling in day trading can result in substantial costs that erode profits. But it is the taxes that hurt the most. If you have a successful day trade, that’s great. But if you are in a 50 per cent tax bracket, because of capital gains taxes, you now have about 25 per ent less capital deployed in the market than a long-term investor. This reduced level of capital is a giant disadvantage to traders. Long term investors simply compound their capital and pay no taxes (other than on dividends) until their position is sold.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

COMMENT

Stocks and bonds move in tandem. However, the TLT bond ETF has been falling as the S&P has been rising. Over time, this divergence will change, the gap will shrink in the future. For years, the S&P and bonds were in fact moving in tandem, but around 2024 they separated (S&P up, TLT down). It's a healthy market for the two to move in synch.

Showing 1 to 15 of 20,501 entries

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary) Rating

Ranking : 5 out of 5

Star iconStar iconStar iconStar iconStar icon

Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 15

Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 1

Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 10

Total Signals / Votes : 26

Stockchase rating for A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert is calculated according to the stock experts' signals. A high score means experts mostly recommend to buy the stock while a low score means experts mostly recommend to sell the stock.

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary) Frequently Asked Questions

What is A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert stock symbol?

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert is a OTC stock, trading under the symbol A Commentary on the (). It is usually referred to as or A Commentary

Is A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert a buy or a sell?

In the last year, 26 stock analysts published opinions about A Commentary. 15 analysts recommended to BUY the stock. 10 analysts recommended to SELL the stock. The latest stock analyst recommendation is . Read the latest stock experts' ratings for A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert.

Is A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert a good investment or a top pick?

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert was recommended as a Top Pick by on . Read the latest stock experts ratings for A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert.

Why is A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert stock dropping?

Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Read stock experts’ recommendations for help on deciding if you should buy, sell or hold the stock.

Is A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert worth watching?

26 stock analysts on Stockchase covered A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert In the last year. It is a trending stock that is worth watching.

What is A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert stock price?

On , A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary) stock closed at a price of $.