TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 30/07. Down 40%.) Horizon project should hit 75% of production capacity of 77,000 barrels next year. Execution risks are very low. Looking for 25% growth per share next year. Strong balance sheet.
TOP PICK
One of the premier senior producers in Canada. Natural gas weighted right now but a great long-term inventory in the oil sands. Likes the deal with ConocoPhillips (COP-N) allowing them to refine bitumen without having to build their own upgrader. Good dividend.
TOP PICK
One of the senior premier gold producers in Canada. Lowest cost structure. Looking for a 50% growth over the next few years. Likes the leverage to gold.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 30/07. Down 75%.) Copper producer from Zambia. Copper prices are down 60% so far. Fire created some operational problems for about 6 months. Just going into production now. Being squeezed. Once Copper prices go above $2, it's a great stock to own. Considers it a takeover target.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 30/07. Down 94%.) Uranium. Still one of the top tier juniors. Partnered with Denison (DML-T). If you own, consider taking some tax loss.
BUY
Based on $50US oil, they projected cash flow per unit of $1.80. Currently distributing $3, which would indicate there could be a 40% cut if oil stays at $50. Thinks oil will be $75 and $3 distribution would be sustainable. 15.2% yield.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Great asset package in the Montney play. Had a hard time generating per-share growth. 08 was a bit of a turnaround. Looking for some modest growth going into 09. If you own, hang on to it and play the dips.
BUY
Uranium exploration/development. Partnered with Ureva (?) one of the largest global uranium companies. In the Athabascan basin. Great exploration prospect.
BUY
Because of low oil prices and high differentials they are probably not making money on a net basis after operating costs, so they cut back production on their 1st phase and delayed the 2nd phase. Still like this one. Great growth profile.
BUY
Oil/gas producer. Main claim to fame is their prime acreage in the Utica shales in Quebec with partners Talisman (TLM-T) and Forest Oil (FST-N). Exploration so subject to volatility and speculative.
DON'T BUY
Oil/gas producer of around 19,000 BOE's a day. About 60% natural gas. A “show me” stock as it fell hard in late 07 and 08 due to missing their targets. Haven't delivered the per-share growth the market was looking for. Significantly attractive assets.
DON'T BUY
Thinks they sold about a quarter of the company to get the extension on debt as they go through the sale process. Market was not happy with that. Not a fan of the North Sea.
DON'T BUY
Non-operating company in the North Sea, (Not a fan of the North Sea.) so you are subject to the timing/business plan of the operator.
DON'T BUY
An Achilles heel with this company is concern over its debt covenants. Because production is lower than projected, there are CapX cuts and higher operating costs.
DON'T BUY
Junior oil/gas producer with a gas weighting. Extremely cheap at about 1.5X cash flow and about 2.5X 09 cash flow. The general environment for natural gas really skews you to the top tier names so stay with the bigger names until the market changes its views on juniors..