DON'T BUY

Friday kicks off bank earnings season, a sector that has been crushed, because Wall Street expects a downturn in the economy. They recently closed a deal at a good price, but there's no other good news. Capital markets have only gotten worse due to tariffs.

DON'T BUY

Friday kicks off bank earnings season, a sector that has been crushed, because Wall Street expects a downturn in the economy. WFC was doing well into it slammed into Trump's tariffs. The CEO will have to be cautious on Friday; he has no choice. But shares won't rally on that sentiment.

WATCH

It reports Friday. The CEO will explain what will happen, that we had a well-oiled economy with a pro-business president ready to take it to the moon, but instead we got a journey to the centre of the Earth.

WAIT

Wait until the CEO speaks at the next quarter, given the very uncertain macro environment.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It got crushed by this week's tariffs, because most of its manufacturing is overseas. It plummeted 40% yesterday and is -63% this year. But it's a great growth company with good numbers.

BUY

Used cars should do well after all these tariffs, which will make new cars more expensive and used ones (and repairs on existing cars) more attractive. Has a great record outperforming the S&P, a beautiful chart. Their last quarter was mixed, though fine to him. ORLY had a big same-store sales beat and smaller total revenue beat. Earnings were a little light, and the full-year forecast disappointed, but they always lowball guidance. Despite the huge sell-off this week, this stock is still up for the year.

BUY

Used cars should do well after all these tariffs, which will make new cars more expensive and used ones (and repairs on existing cars) more attractive. They last reported strong same-store sales growth and an earnings miss. They have hundreds of stores in Mexico and Brazil, so currency fluctuations hurt them. The core American business is solid, though. The CEO is optimistic about this year. Is still up 15% this year. Yes, Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on foreign car parts, but Americans will pay up for those because they must use their cars--a necessary expense. Buys back a lot of shares.

BUY

Part of today's brutal sell-off, but they have minimal tariff exposure and do well in weak economies.

DON'T BUY

It's near-9% dividend yield is too big. Something is awry here.

DON'T BUY

The CEO is not doing an appropriate job. He wishes he didn't own this. Wants to see the board act.

DON'T BUY

Likes it, but shares spiked when it looked like the president would be pro-business. Expect 15-20% downside.

DON'T BUY

For this to succeed, they need China to get stronger and have worldwide growth, neither of which we see now.

COMMENT

Tariffs have plunged the tariffs by over 2000 points. How can we focus on the long term when the short term is a horror show? Tariffs are incoherent, enormous, not reciprocal--and needless. It's like Trump wanted to be as dramatic as possible, like a TV show, not like he's running a country. But the stock market doesn't want Trump or a TV show. We want a president that can get things done and not throw us into a recession. He should be worried about a crash or recession which looks very possible. Mr. President, don't cause a crash--it will be your legacy.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

We would not see a rush, but we would be OK buying a partial position (1/5th or so) into any further weakness. It may take a while for things to recover. We think over three years it will be higher, but the short term outlook is much harder to call. 
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HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

LNR is in the same boat (same car?) as Magna. It is also very cheap though. It has some European business ($2.8B) which insulates it a bit from the US trade war. The balance sheet is fine and it will get through this crisis, but we would not expect much from it this year. 
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