WEAK BUY

Stock's a lot more cyclical than the company, as it's subject to a lot of sentiment swings in US housing. Good business, founder is still on the board. Too big for him, but a way to get capital-light housing exposure.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 09/18, Up 34%)

High-end restaurant kitchen equipment. Covid was a game-changer -- restaurants were just trying to survive, not spend on capex, so revenue growth slowed. Not a great return over that long a time. Really good track record of acquisitions. North of $10B now, so too big for him, but he's always liked management and the asset base.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 09/18, Down 82%)

This was Burger King - Brazil. No longer trades.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 09/18, Up 66%)

Always felt it didn't get the credit it deserved. Great business. If Canada wants to be able to better defend itself on the global stage, perhaps it should bring more of the value chain within its borders instead of sending every oil and gas molecule south of the border. This company would have billions to deploy on projects if returns met its hurdle rate.

DON'T BUY

Two years ago was his last meeting with the company. It was good, but not good enough. Long-term care is challenged -- government reimbursement is an issue, growth is stable but low single digits. Wouldn't buy today.

PARTIAL SELL

Ran into self-imposed issues surrounding communication involving capex spending. Plus "lost" a fashion season. Only retailer he's comfortable owning -- big US business, very successful online. Makes and sells its own products. Reduced his portfolio position on valuation, but a bright future.

HOLD

Strategy was to get bigger in Canada and US propane distribution, and he liked that. Didn't like the payout ratio of 80-90%. Certarus acquisition wise. Balance sheet couldn't support all its big plans. Dividend cut a positive, and should free up capital.

Widespread team turnover since the acquisition, so it'll take him some time to get familiar with new management. Some reasons to be optimistic.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Very successful, but not well known. Founder still the chairman. Think of it as a professional services firm focused on healthcare. Lots of growth potential. Bookings to billings deceleration, so stock's selling off; should trough around 1x.

HOLD

Top of his list of regrets, perhaps the best-performing real estate stock in NA over the past 5 years. Incredible returns to shareholders and growth. Likes the business and management, though would favour a deeper management bench. Moral supporter of the company, but not an owner (kept thinking he'd get it cheaper, but never did).

BUY

Reasonably well-tied to commercial construction. Fantastic job dealing with uncertainties. Likes the business and management team. A bit too big for him, as it's about to exit "SmallCapLand". If you own, decent time to add.

DON'T BUY

Only good things to say about the business and management (though he has a hometown Kitchener-Waterloo bias ;) Through the global lens, other companies are just as good, cheaper, with probably more growth potential.

DON'T BUY

Rolling out its software into one of his largest holdings, AND. Best-in-class software. Biggest exposure is hospitals. Long sales cycle. He prefers more recurring revenue and easy to download.

COMMENT
With a small cap underwater, when to sell?

Sorry to hear that, no fun to lose money. You have to go back to the beginning and why you bought it. Separate the business from the stock. The stock may go up and down, but has the business performance met your expectations? That's the hard part, because most people think of the price they paid for a stock and not the value they were getting at the time.

Without more specific investor context, he'd say that this is probably the time to sell the ones you don't understand all that well or that have underperformed your expectations. Redeploy that capital elsewhere. Really important to forget your purchase price. Every single day you have to come in and "re-buy" everything you own. If you're not willing to do that, it tells you something about your conviction in that holding.

BUY

Whenever he can, tends to avoid commodities, currencies, interest rates, and government policy. When he does that, things go well. The caveat is that in oil & gas you can find companies that are in the very early stages of growth. 

He owns this one. Management team is from the Spartan group with a proven track record. Lots of growth potential here. Balance sheet has debt to cashflow under 1, which is a requirement for him.

COMMENT
Storm Resources.

Whenever he can, tends to avoid commodities, currencies, interest rates, and government policy. When he does that, things go well. The caveat is that in oil & gas you can find companies that are in the very early stages of growth. 

He owns this one, though it's private. The last 5 similar companies that the CEO ran were all public. He's made $$ with the team before, and it's following exactly the same playbook. Trades on the gray market, but not that well. Lots of cash on the balance sheet to do M&A, but it's tough right now because oil and gas companies don't need capital and the CEO refuses to overpay for something.