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NEM/NGT is continuing to struggle with costs, which is impacting profit growth. The Newcrest acquisition is so far not working out well. EPS of 81c missed estimates of 85c. Revenue of $4.6B missed estimates of $4.69B. Newmont's adjusted Ebitda may rise by almost 30% to just over $2.5 billion amid a strong 4Q operational performance, gold output guidance of 1.8 million ounces, 7% higher vs. 3Q, and a rally in gold to more than $2,700 an ounce. This could restore some market sentiment after a disappointing 3Q and muted 2025 outlook. Contracted labor cost inflation offset synergy benefits and operational stability at some of the acquired assets, Lihir, BruceJack and Cadia, may take a bit longer to achieve vs. management's initial expectations. Cash proceeds of $1.1 billion from asset disposals, along with strong operating cashflows, may see net debt decline below $5 billion, giving the company plenty of scope to continue its share-buyback program. The company is not our favourite, and has 'screwed up' before. But it is priced well and EPS is still expected. With some better cost management it can get back on track. With the stock down sharply this week we would rate it a HOLD now, with a view to watch performance over the next six months. Still, we would be fine upon a bounce to switch it for AEM, WPM or FNV. 
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BKNG has done pretty well since that price target. All the engines for value creation have worked quite well recently, with high single-digit revenue growth and aggressive capital return policies. We expect BKNG will continue to do well in the near term and we would be comfortable revisiting BKNG again if it drops below $3900.
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September Market Update:
The TSE Index was up 2.8% in the month of September, up 14.51% YTD and 22.82% over the past year. Canadian GDP was up 0.50% in the third quarter of 2024 and 0.90% for the full year; in the USA the GDP was up 3.00% in the third quarter and 3.00% for the full year. The Canadian inflation rate was up 2.00% annually and the US inflation rate was 2.50% annually in September 2024.
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