It reported a beat this morning, but they always set a really low bar in earnings, and the long-time CEO announced his retirement. The CEO guided it to great heights, but recent disastrous declines in earnings. The pandemic hurt their Chinese sales and that has never recovered; also, airport sales haven't recovered. Since the start of 2022, Estee Lauder has sank 75% while ELF has soared 382%. Lauder maintained high prices to protect their margins, but that may be working anymore.
Earnings largely over (except NVIDIA), but generally speaking - consumers are in a relatively good position. Earnings growth appears to be broadening out in the markets (not just big tech). Expecting an economic hard landing as bond yields pointing to dark times ahead. Equity markets and bond markets appear to be diverging. Time will tell, but bond markets usually smarter than stock markets. Expecting volatility from now until the US election.
We think it is OK at current prices for higher-risk income. At $7.00 we would be much more interested, assuming no fundamental changes.
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AOI has lots of cash, a cheap valuation and very rapidly growing revenue and earnings as wells come onto production over the next two years. It is fairly small and needs to be considering high risk, but we would see it as a BUY for small cap sector investors.
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BIR beat estimates nicely across the board, with a very big beat on EBITDA at $132M. Average production was ahead of estimates at 78,358 b/d. Operationally, things look fine, but it did lower guidance on expected lower prices. Still, consensus calls for good growth overall in 2025. The balance sheet has some debt but is OK overall. The stock reacted well to the news, and we would be fine holding this for sector exposure.
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Market Update:
The TSE Index was up 5.65% in the month of July, up 10.27% YTD and 12.04 % over the past year. Canadian GDP was up 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024 and 0.50% for the full year; in the USA the GDP was up 2.80% in the third quarter and 3.10% for the full year. The Canadian inflation rate was up 2.70% annually and the US inflation rate was 2.90% annually in July 2024. With this background, the following Table presents the highest and lowest performers for the month of July 2024.
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Is up 5% in the past 3 months. It benefits from infrastructure spending.