COMMENT
Educational Segment. Inflation on the shorter term horizon is going up but the longer term number is relatively low. However, longer term expectations are now rising. If prices become unanchored, people will go buy today instead of in the future. There has been no meaningful change in terms of inflation in 5 years. This is why the Feds think it is transitory. If inflation goes up, PFIX could offer a hedge to inflation, as well as IVOL.
COMMENT
The market maker has natural arbitrage. Over history, things have drifted but typically this is where there are derivatives or problems with the underlying asset class. There is little worry about dislocation with a large index.
COMMENT
The issue is it only has $5M in the fund. Not clear yet in terms of what it means as an investment story. Tesla is one of the biggest holdings. He is unsure if there is value there.
COMMENT
It is a buy low, sell high strategy. The target is 6%. Good for yield seekers who do not want to take risk and see volatility. The yield is sustainable.
COMMENT
He has issues with fixed income. You need fixed income to have a stable return. However, bond yields are so low that this part of the portfolio is impaired. Fixed income in the foreseeable future is not something investors should have. Need active strategy to deliver value in fixed income.
DON'T BUY
Uses leverage and if markets go into risk off, then it could be really bad. Incredibly volatile instrument. Not for the average investor. There is a big yield, but you need to be ready for significant volatility.
PARTIAL BUY
Likes the banks for trading. As the yield curve steepens, there are trades to be made. If you are the leveraged type, it could be fine for short trading. Often, investors are not able to get out and it tends to become long term holds. Need to be disciplined to trade over days and weeks. There is natural erosion and the net asset erosion is work if it is more leveraged.
COMMENT
Okay using inverse ETFs, but better to stay in 1x leverage. Can use them short term. In the short run, there could be more pull back. Does not think we will see much below $4,100 or $4,200 this year. Looking for more pullback but not a whole lot more.
COMMENT
Energy prices. The energy price melt up is probably transitory. There has been underinvestment in replenishing due to the greening of the world. The demand side is not curtailed as fast as the green side wants to see. The demand for energy is still relatively high. Depletion will come into play. Since we have not reinvested in the past, there could be meaningful upside pressure on prices.
COMMENT
Stagflation. There are many trends are pointing to stagflation. Productivity and population are the two key factors. Productivity may go up thanks to technology even though the work force may shrink slightly. There are many signs of stagflation coming. Bond yields are breaking out, and with the yield curve's behaviour, we are seeing that the bond market will push back. Equity risk premium will rise and we will get some compression in PE.
N/A
Market. There are sector dynamics going into office space. Post-pandemic you would expect numbers to increase but he is trying to estimate what percentage of workers will stay working from home. The office sector is one to continue to avoid as we are too far from the bottom. Office vacancies are the highest since the '90s. XRE-T collapsed at the start of COVID but has not got back to where it was pre-pandemic. It has a mix of winners, post-pandemic, retail, and office. These later sectors SHOULD suffer post-pandemic. You should not look at one ETF overall.
WEAK BUY
It is a large corporation rather than a REIT. The corporation has always traded at a big discount to an underlying value. It does not pay a distribution and has a valuation discount. It owns both office and retail. Both are sectors that have been hurt during the pandemic. It is hard to think about a catalyst that will close the gap of discount to value. For those that are patient and willing, it is something to look at.
DON'T BUY
It has many positive attributes: Strong management, great business model and a niche business model. Their tenant usage is a smaller model. They are well positioned. They can't fight the tide. It is a difficult operating market. There are high vacancies there and they have to be competitive in signing new leases. He would not own it today.
HOLD
It is being bought in an all cash deal. There is a nice spread for those that are willing to take advantage of the take-out. To move out, he would suggest US real estate traded in Canada – see his Top Picks today. Dream (DIR.UN-T) is another to take a look at.
DON'T BUY
It was a diversified REIT in the US and Canada and then there was board transition an activist shareholder has taken control to sell off the assets and reinvest the capital into other publicly traded REITs. He questions this business strategy. Choose the REITs they invested in for yourselves.