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In this market sell-off, base metals are selling off even harder though energy stocks (small caps) are holding better today. Again this year, Canadian small caps have underperformed the large caps. Note that the Canadian and US markets over 20 years actually have evenly performed, offereing the same return. The last 10 years have been a lost decade for Canada, but the decade before that was a lost one for America. He believes in reversion to the mean, like seeing tech stocks coming off lately. Canada has underperformed emerging markets the last few years, but that could change with stable oil prices.
All money managers are down this year 25-35%, worse in the U.S. Only Guardian Capital has held up. These are plays on the overall market, so as markets go down, assets leave the asset managers. So, the macro has hurt GS. Last quarter, $250 million in assets left GS out of a total of $8 billion. There are worries among asset managers that more assets will leave them as investors panic in this downturn. Cheap multiple.
Frustrating. They trade at a much lower multiple than the larger midstream players. They started to deliver on their numbers. Trades at a lower multiple than their peers. This stock should move up. They just need to continue to execute. Brokers are calling him to sell his shares, so there is demand (but he won't sell). He's held this for a long time. Their fair value is higher than the current share price.
All the base metals are getting creamed, down a ton. Frustrating--they aren't hitting on any of their metrics. It's getting more difficult to produce copper at present prices, problems with the mines. It's oversold. There could be heavy tax-loss selling soon. He wishes operations were going better. In a recent controversy, a seller doesn't want Hudbay to buy anything now as takeover and merger specualtion ensues.
He recommended it two years ago. Recently they warned that revenues would be delayed. They have governance issues too. He sold his shares. He saw too many red flags and expects lawsuits against them. He feels bad, because he recommended this stock. He has no confidence in management. Sometimes you have to take your lumps.
Hasn't looked at this closely. They were planning to make some acqusitions and be more of a holding company, then they had a bump when they reached some settlements with Apple, which is contesting those settlements. The stock looks cheap, but he's not big on holding companies. Don't sell now; it's too cheap and holding on better than most stocks in the current downturn. It's a defensive position. If they get the money from Apple, it should move up nicely. He doesn't own this stock, because it's too small.
He's recommended it before. It had a strong run, then pulled back for a while. They had to grow into their multiple, so the stock got ahead of itself. The storage sector is highly fragmented. They continue to make acqusitions. Margins are increasing. They're very good operators. It's a defensive play. A US player may eventually buy them.
(Past Top Pick Sept. 28, 2017, Up 29%) He bought it when it was unloved as the oil/gas sector was doing poorly. They were moving more into oil vs. gas. Their production was moving up. It's a large position for him. Production was going well, so more people traded it. They got added to the TSX, so index buyers started to buy them. They've upped their guidance twice now. Trades at a low multiple. Continues to like and hold it.
(Past Top Pick Sept. 28, 2017, Down 1%) It's outperformed its peers. But it doesn't trade at a low multiple. Partially sold his shares. Great management. This is one of the better IPO's in Canada. It did well last Christmas with good toy launches. They've been a good consolidator/acquirer. He really likes this story.
(Past Top Pick Sept. 28, 2017, Up 1%) It's come off a lot lately, so he will add to his position. It's a play on Amazon, because it's an industrial REIT that stores products that Amazon sells. Pays a yield of 5.9%. He will add to an already-large position. The last quarter was weaker than previous ones. It's a lumpy stock, but have re-signed their leesees at higher rates, so he still likes it. He's not sure why the stock is down apart from a general market downturn.
They haven't won many contracts lately. They had signed a deal with Rogers to make them look like Apple TV and more user-friendly, but lost that contract, then signed a few new contracts, but those revenues haven't come to fruition. He still holds it thought it's been going down. There's lot of cash on the balance sheet. He's waiting for them to sign more contracts. Frustrating. If things don't work it, the company might be sold. They've done poorly operationally.
Pays a nice dividend. The stock had been coming off. They were supposed to have signed some royalty deals, but haven't in 18 months. He prefers that they take their time and be careful, but eventually they need to sign in order to lower their payout ratio. This should do okay during the current market downturn.
