Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 28, 2018

This is a classic potential value trap. It looks very cheap on a short-term basis but the assets that it has are not low-cost assets. However, of the base metals, he is most bullish on zinc. This is a good way for someone to take a levered position on zinc, but he thinks base metal fundamentals are challenged now. The trend for base metals seems to be downward, and there was a huge stocking up of inventories of base metals back in the spring, especially on the Shanghai exchange, and that still has to be unwound. He was generally short base materials in the Spring but is neutral now. He is still short the renewable energy materials, lithium and graphite, because he thinks the market is expecting the infrastructure that will use these to be built out faster than it will actually be built.

This is a classic potential value trap. It looks very cheap on a short-term basis but the assets that it has are not low-cost assets. However, of the base metals, he is most bullish on zinc. This is a good way for someone to take a levered position on zinc, but he thinks base metal fundamentals are challenged now. The trend for base metals seems to be downward, and there was a huge stocking up of inventories of base metals back in the spring, especially on the Shanghai exchange, and that still has to be unwound. He was generally short base materials in the Spring but is neutral now. He is still short the renewable energy materials, lithium and graphite, because he thinks the market is expecting the infrastructure that will use these to be built out faster than it will actually be built.

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$0.800
Owned
No
BUY
BUY
August 28, 2018

He usually invests in small-to-midcap companies, but he likes this one and owns a small position. The price has been dropping and he sees this as a good entry point. They have a lot of excess capital, which he expects them to deploy in the back half of the year. His guess is they will expand financial services -- PC Financial -- rather than retail. They have been growing PC Financial and he expects an acquisition in that space.

He usually invests in small-to-midcap companies, but he likes this one and owns a small position. The price has been dropping and he sees this as a good entry point. They have a lot of excess capital, which he expects them to deploy in the back half of the year. His guess is they will expand financial services -- PC Financial -- rather than retail. They have been growing PC Financial and he expects an acquisition in that space.

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$101.560
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
August 28, 2018

He would not short this because there is an ongoing big run up in anything associated with sports gambling and it looks as though the US will legalize that. Market cap is $100 million which would be easy to buy. He expects this to be acquired--no longer publicly traded--within a year, probably at a higher price.

TheScore Inc. (SCR-X)
August 28, 2018

He would not short this because there is an ongoing big run up in anything associated with sports gambling and it looks as though the US will legalize that. Market cap is $100 million which would be easy to buy. He expects this to be acquired--no longer publicly traded--within a year, probably at a higher price.

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$0.390
Owned
Yes
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 28, 2018

He is short WestJet and has been long Air Canada against it. That is still the trade he would favour. WestJet built out too much capacity. There is no compelling reason to own it. Tax loss season is coming and companies that have underperformed, like WestJet, will stay under pressure.

Westjet Airlines (WJA-T)
August 28, 2018

He is short WestJet and has been long Air Canada against it. That is still the trade he would favour. WestJet built out too much capacity. There is no compelling reason to own it. Tax loss season is coming and companies that have underperformed, like WestJet, will stay under pressure.

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$18.790
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 28, 2018

He tends to short companies that show negative trends and he plans to stay short on this even though it has already dropped so much. It has had a few disastrous quarters in a row. There was chatter a year ago about them spinning out some real estate assets but apparently that failed. The balance sheet is now getting tight, with covenants that limit them to 4x debt to EBITDA. He thinks they’ll push up against that this quarter. He’ll stay short until they start improving their margins.

AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T)
August 28, 2018

He tends to short companies that show negative trends and he plans to stay short on this even though it has already dropped so much. It has had a few disastrous quarters in a row. There was chatter a year ago about them spinning out some real estate assets but apparently that failed. The balance sheet is now getting tight, with covenants that limit them to 4x debt to EBITDA. He thinks they’ll push up against that this quarter. He’ll stay short until they start improving their margins.

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$12.560
Owned
No
HOLD
HOLD
August 28, 2018

He likes this. It has $5 a share in cash and he likes that they have had the discipline to keep waiting for acquisitions that appear cheap enough to take over.

He likes this. It has $5 a share in cash and he likes that they have had the discipline to keep waiting for acquisitions that appear cheap enough to take over.

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$8.560
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
August 28, 2018

It screens well in his quantitative strategies. They had a big hiccup a year and a half ago with one of their restaurant royalties. Since then, they added an auto muffler and oil change service. It has grown quickly. The stock hasn’t done much but has built a big base at this level. He’s looking to buy more. He likes the interest-sensitive stocks now because he thinks the rate-hike cycle is almost done, especially in Canada. He thinks that a significant consumer slowdown has started, which will put a brake on rates. In the US, the Fed has been indicating too that it is slowing rate hikes. (Analysts’ price target is $4.13)

It screens well in his quantitative strategies. They had a big hiccup a year and a half ago with one of their restaurant royalties. Since then, they added an auto muffler and oil change service. It has grown quickly. The stock hasn’t done much but has built a big base at this level. He’s looking to buy more. He likes the interest-sensitive stocks now because he thinks the rate-hike cycle is almost done, especially in Canada. He thinks that a significant consumer slowdown has started, which will put a brake on rates. In the US, the Fed has been indicating too that it is slowing rate hikes. (Analysts’ price target is $4.13)

James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
Price
$3.240
Owned
Yes