This is the most important sector from a business and government safety point of view. It is overvalued right now and could be subject to recessions or corrections.


There is so much concern on quality of earnings and when the companies will be profitable. He wants to see the industry mature. He likes it long term. The health side of this could be revolutionary over the next couple of decades.


Educational Segment. Market Breadth. Everyone knows earnings are expected to be good. What matters most is what people actually do with their money, not reports. He likes to look at the S&P 500 and its 200 day moving average. We are getting close to the highs from earlier this year. The return to risk ratio is not looking so good. He then looks at the percentage of stocks that are trending above their 200 day moving average. We are at 62% but were at 70-80% back last year when the markets were robust. How many stocks are making new highs? Last year the trend was robust and increasing. It peaked in January. This year the percentage is on the decline. You currently have only a few stocks lifting the markets. The S&P-500 absent the FANGs is not even up this year.


Market. Markets have been a little choppy. The US market has continued to climb despite all the things Trump says. There are positive fundamentals and good economic numbers. He believes this will continue to play out for the remainder of the year. However there are high PE multiples and rising interest rates. There are opportunities for stock pickers and you have to be a little more selective. Avoid the momentum and tech stocks. He invests in US banks rather than Canadian ones. There are greater risks and more headwinds for Canadian Banks.


He thinks they have a lot of valuable real estate and have attempted to monetize it, but even as they have done this, the stock has not made any headway. The negative secular trend in retail is just too tough. If they can't get the retail business going then investors may start to question if the real estate is really worth all that much.

department stores

The liquor and cannabis businesses are two distinct and different businesses. CLIQ-T are going through a very extensive renovation this year. They are doing the right long term thinks in the business but it will impact it short time. There is great long term upside.

merchandising / lodging

Historically this company has not had a great return on capital. Returns from reinvestments have never really come.

Consumer Products