Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Colin Stewart commented about whether CP-T, GH-T, IBM-N, FFH-T, ITP-T, BAC-N, CSU-T, JTR-X, ARE-T, ATD.B-T, CTC.A-T, CIX-T, AD-T, H-T, CLR-T, WTE-T, PBL-T, AW-T, PIF-T, HPS.A-T, HLF-T, CLIQ-T, HBC-T, HVT-X, CYBR-T, EMA-T, HBF-T, ZWH-T, ZPW-T, ZUD-T, ZDY-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Utilities in general are cyclical and linked highly to interest rates. We don’t have to worry too much about yields going too high. But he does not see much scope for growth in the stock for two years. ZWU-T would add some diversification while leaving you exposed to this sector. Both tickers are similar on a chart.
Educational Segment. Market Breadth. Everyone knows earnings are expected to be good. What matters most is what people actually do with their money, not reports. He likes to look at the S&P 500 and its 200 day moving average. We are getting close to the highs from earlier this year. The return to risk ratio is not looking so good. He then looks at the percentage of stocks that are trending above their 200 day moving average. We are at 62% but were at 70-80% back last year when the markets were robust. How many stocks are making new highs? Last year the trend was robust and increasing. It peaked in January. This year the percentage is on the decline. You currently have only a few stocks lifting the markets. The S&P-500 absent the FANGs is not even up this year.
Market. Markets have been a little choppy. The US market has continued to climb despite all the things Trump says. There are positive fundamentals and good economic numbers. He believes this will continue to play out for the remainder of the year. However there are high PE multiples and rising interest rates. There are opportunities for stock pickers and you have to be a little more selective. Avoid the momentum and tech stocks. He invests in US banks rather than Canadian ones. There are greater risks and more headwinds for Canadian Banks.
He thinks they have a lot of valuable real estate and have attempted to monetize it, but even as they have done this, the stock has not made any headway. The negative secular trend in retail is just too tough. If they can't get the retail business going then investors may start to question if the real estate is really worth all that much.
Market. The yield curve in Japan has been flat with negative interest rates for some time. They are the world leader in QE. They are the single largest holder of Japanese ETFs in the world. He thinks they will target shorter parts of the curve. And longer term parts of the curve will creep higher. There is a tremendous supply of bonds coming to the market. He thinks we will start to see a steepening of the yield curve. It will be interesting to see what happens to mortgage rates. Tensions with Iran are bearish for the world – don't go out and buy oil stocks because of it. The FANG index is hitting resistance and he thinks we are in for a correction.