Similar to ADP who is focused on the small and medium sized companies. When the economy is really strong this company will do well. His concern is that the economy may be at peak capacity, with unemployment less than 4% -- how many more paycheques can they write? This is also outside the seasonal peak for the sector. Technically, it needs to hold key support near these levels.
The spot natural gas market in the US has a seasonal peak period of mid-March to mid-June for cooling needs and September into December for heating needs. He does own some natural gas exposure in another ETF, but is looking to take profit sometime in June. He is more excited about buying in September.
This good company has done poorly as of late as investors are looking for growth stocks in fear of higher interest rates. Seasonally consumer staples do well this time of year. He is waiting to see if the US 10 year yield retraces as this stock could be a very good buy. The stock is substantially under-performing the market right now. He would wait until it shows strength again seasonally in August.
There is some seasonality to the telcom sector – they tend to do well in the fall time. This is not a growth stock and has been beaten up with the move to higher interest rates. He is not convinced there will be a rapid rise in interest rates, so he would recommend holding. If the price drops a bit in the summer he would consider adding to length ahead of the fall seasonal rally. Yield 5.5%.
There is a strong seasonal pattern from end-May to end-June. Earnings will be announced next week. It is a strong growth company and has avoided the selloff of the consumer staple sector. Technically, it is still demonstrating higher highs and higher lows. Yield 1.16%. (Analysts’ price target is $208.75 )
Cash. This is the time to be more conservative and there could be bigger corrections than normal, so he wants to take advantage of any opportunities. Since 1950, eight of the largest market corrections have occurred from May 25 to October 27 – especially September. Only two big drops have occurred outside this window.
(A Top Pick February 22/18 Down 2%) He sold it in early April when the seasonal trend peaked. Rising interest rates has not been benefitting the financial sector as would normally be the case – measured as under-performing the broad market index. He feels the narrative is changing. Technically it does not look good to him. He would not be here now.
(A Top Pick February 22/18 Up 16%) They took an even larger position in the Canadian sector, but took profit recently. The seasonal peak is from February 25 to May 9, so thinks this sector is due for a retracement. Inventories are being talked higher, so he thinks it is time to take profit on this one.
It has a good dividend. The consolidation this year is actually pretty good, given the utility sector performance as a whole. This is in a good spot to begin to go higher. The quarterly dividend had been cut from $0.29 per share to $0.04, but this is already factored in by the market. Yield 2%.