This is the widest divergence between oil prices and Canadian energy stocks he's ever seen. We're in a multi-year bull market with a big drop in oil inventories in the past year. Investors don't appreciate how demand is up. The bogeyman
is U.S. shale, but there is a labour shortage in Texas (2.5% unemployment rate there) so this is a constraint. In Canada, we have a profound pipeline shortage with maximum flow for oil and natural gas happening this August. These constraints along with continued rising demand amounts to supply shortages for the next five years. He's very bullish about oil prices. It's going to take time for Canadian energy stocks to rise, but the wide differential between WTI and Canadian WCS has been narrowing.
One of his major holdings. He's very bullish on pressure pumping. Deal closed today where they bought a U.S. pressure pumper, Tucker. Will be accretive. They will have enough cash flow to buy back 90% of their stock--and there's a growing trend of buybacks in Canada and America. Step gives you exposure to the U.S. pressure pumping market. A cheap stock. It trades at 4.5x earnings and 2x EBITDA with growth potential in U.S.
Don't buy natural gas now, unless you're doing a short-term tactical trade. He's expecting Shell to come in within the next few months with an investment, Natural gas will be under pressure until 2023 and meanwhile not enough pipelines can carry it away. Long term, though, this and other nat. gas stocks could double after five years.
With regulations, taxes and problem getting our oil out through pipelines, would a Canadian oil company buy back shares? Differentials (WTI vs. WCS) are wide because of limited pipelines, but has narrowed from $30 to around $21 and will continue to improve when railway capacity comes on. Light oil is not as impacted by pipeline constraints. Carbon tax is a reality. Federal vs. provincial political conflicts will endure. So, what else can a Canadian energy producer do but buy back shares?
(A Top Pick May 23/17, Down 27%) A pure play in Canadian pressure pumping. Still a big holding for him. Got penalized for concerns to their exposure to dry natural gas. But the market ignored their play in East Duvernay. This has been the poster child to Americans selling or shorting Canadian oil. A major plus: This company is buying back $54 million of stock with their net cash.
(A Top Pick May 23/17, Up 25%) Demand in pressure pumping is projected to rise 25% from 2017 to this year, but the amount of equipment that companies like this are bringing on exceed that. Also, wear and tear on equipment is very high, so you lose 20-25% annual capacity. Oil price will rise though we're a few years away from the peak multiple.
They have lingering long-term issues though it's no longer a hated stock. They don't grow enough to attract capital, at 7% with a dividend. Midcap oil companies: investors don't care about them. All such companies should stop drilling and buy back stock. CPG will likely sell some assets and re-deploy their cash.