Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 30, 2018

Having taken most of my money out, how do I know when to sell my last bit, or do I keep hanging on forever as I’m just playing with the house money? This is really the core of investment management. It's a question every investor and investment manager has to understand, come to terms with, and create a disciplined approach to the answer. You have to have a rule-based investment philosophy to allow long-term success. It's not "house money", it's your money. You should think of your profits, not in terms of the relationship with a cost of your investment, but just in absolute terms. It's your money. It doesn't have any less value because you've earned it in the market. Also you shouldn't just be holding on because it is "winning". You have to always be looking at the company in terms of how is it trading today relative to its past, and what might happen in the future. You have to judge a company every day, asking yourself if it is something you would buy today.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Visa Inc. (V-N)
January 30, 2018

Having taken most of my money out, how do I know when to sell my last bit, or do I keep hanging on forever as I’m just playing with the house money? This is really the core of investment management. It's a question every investor and investment manager has to understand, come to terms with, and create a disciplined approach to the answer. You have to have a rule-based investment philosophy to allow long-term success. It's not "house money", it's your money. You should think of your profits, not in terms of the relationship with a cost of your investment, but just in absolute terms. It's your money. It doesn't have any less value because you've earned it in the market. Also you shouldn't just be holding on because it is "winning". You have to always be looking at the company in terms of how is it trading today relative to its past, and what might happen in the future. You have to judge a company every day, asking yourself if it is something you would buy today.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 30, 2018

An interesting company, because it is an older tech company, but they've got a new life. That new life has come on the back of the Cloud and gaming, and it’s been a very, very big ship to turn. They've done it successfully and deserve a lot of credit. However, the stock price has reflected that optimism, more so than the fundamentals, so the multiples have risen, because there is more optimism in the market.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Microsoft (MSFT-Q)
January 30, 2018

An interesting company, because it is an older tech company, but they've got a new life. That new life has come on the back of the Cloud and gaming, and it’s been a very, very big ship to turn. They've done it successfully and deserve a lot of credit. However, the stock price has reflected that optimism, more so than the fundamentals, so the multiples have risen, because there is more optimism in the market.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 30, 2018

Sold his holdings about 6 months ago. A great illustration of how you have to balance off risk and reward. It got into the mid $200s, and looking at it relative to its past trading, was trading at about a 50% premium to its normalized valuation metrics. That represents risk. He didn't feel they deserved that much of a premium.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Boeing (BA-N)
January 30, 2018

Sold his holdings about 6 months ago. A great illustration of how you have to balance off risk and reward. It got into the mid $200s, and looking at it relative to its past trading, was trading at about a 50% premium to its normalized valuation metrics. That represents risk. He didn't feel they deserved that much of a premium.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 30, 2018

Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and J.P. Morgan just announced forming a healthcare company aimed at cutting costs. The experiment with government led healthcare mandates really didn’t work. There was far too much friction between opposing views. If you own the stock, you shouldn't get too excited about just one day, or the fact that insurers are going to go away.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and J.P. Morgan just announced forming a healthcare company aimed at cutting costs. The experiment with government led healthcare mandates really didn’t work. There was far too much friction between opposing views. If you own the stock, you shouldn't get too excited about just one day, or the fact that insurers are going to go away.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 30, 2018

Has attracted him over the years, but has always shied away because it's messy. There seems to always be something introduced that throws them off their game. Whether it’s the US$ moving up or down because a lot of their business comes from outside of the US. They are in court a lot because of their appliances. Just last week, the US government put a tariff on any washing machine, regardless of where it was produced coming into the US. It looks attractive, but he just can't get comfortable enough with it.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Whirlpool Corp (WHR-N)
January 30, 2018

Has attracted him over the years, but has always shied away because it's messy. There seems to always be something introduced that throws them off their game. Whether it’s the US$ moving up or down because a lot of their business comes from outside of the US. They are in court a lot because of their appliances. Just last week, the US government put a tariff on any washing machine, regardless of where it was produced coming into the US. It looks attractive, but he just can't get comfortable enough with it.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 30, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 26/17. Up 40.92%.) When you've got 2 billion active users plus, and a higher and higher percentage of your audience is using mobile apps there is more face time, which is a dream from a producers' standpoint, because advertisers want to pay more for that. But still, the advertising business has not caught up with the social media. There is still a long way to go for companies like this.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Facebook (FB-Q)
January 30, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 26/17. Up 40.92%.) When you've got 2 billion active users plus, and a higher and higher percentage of your audience is using mobile apps there is more face time, which is a dream from a producers' standpoint, because advertisers want to pay more for that. But still, the advertising business has not caught up with the social media. There is still a long way to go for companies like this.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 30, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 26/17. Up 37.38%.) This is a search and social media, and uses different tactics to attract users. It is starting to grow into its multiple. Trading at less than 30X 2018 earnings, so it is not expensive.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(A Top Pick Jan 26/17. Up 37.38%.) This is a search and social media, and uses different tactics to attract users. It is starting to grow into its multiple. Trading at less than 30X 2018 earnings, so it is not expensive.