Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 13, 2017

This is a play on the underlying social media, logistics, delivery. In terms of the Chinese economy, it has a highly dense population, and if you want to deliver products, you just can’t go to the big box stores, so you get a delivery price which comes with the Ali Baba story. The valuation is very steep, and if it were a little lower he would potentially take a position. A very binary story as far as valuations go, but he recognizes it as a quality company.

This is a play on the underlying social media, logistics, delivery. In terms of the Chinese economy, it has a highly dense population, and if you want to deliver products, you just can’t go to the big box stores, so you get a delivery price which comes with the Ali Baba story. The valuation is very steep, and if it were a little lower he would potentially take a position. A very binary story as far as valuations go, but he recognizes it as a quality company.

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$178.450
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 13, 2017

In many cases this is a Trump Administration story. Drug stocks have come off significantly, along with the companies that sell drugs to the American consumer. There has been a recovery in a lot of the drug stocks, and he’s not 100% convinced that Americans want to give up Obamacare. Ultimately, this is a story of drug price inflation and the attempts of the government to rein costs in. Longer-term, it is an interesting story, but a very thin margin business. If you get a small drop in profitability, stocks tend to come back significantly. This may be a buying opportunity, but for him the margins are a little skinny and not on his radar.

CVS Health Corp (CVS-N)
October 13, 2017

In many cases this is a Trump Administration story. Drug stocks have come off significantly, along with the companies that sell drugs to the American consumer. There has been a recovery in a lot of the drug stocks, and he’s not 100% convinced that Americans want to give up Obamacare. Ultimately, this is a story of drug price inflation and the attempts of the government to rein costs in. Longer-term, it is an interesting story, but a very thin margin business. If you get a small drop in profitability, stocks tend to come back significantly. This may be a buying opportunity, but for him the margins are a little skinny and not on his radar.

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$72.600
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 13, 2017

Private equity works by you having to put capital in, but after a period of time, they have to give it back. A lot of money owned by companies like this, can effectively be under risk of having to return it. If they can’t raise additional capital, their sustainability longer-term of the dividend, is somewhat in question. The 2nd issue is that you have a business that really makes all its money by buying when there is a recession and selling when there are frothy markets. At this point, we have very frothy markets. Anything that needs to be sold probably has been sold, and moving forward, the likelihood of performance improving may be modified lower. This is a kind of company you want to buy during a recession.

Blackstone Group LP (BX-N)
October 13, 2017

Private equity works by you having to put capital in, but after a period of time, they have to give it back. A lot of money owned by companies like this, can effectively be under risk of having to return it. If they can’t raise additional capital, their sustainability longer-term of the dividend, is somewhat in question. The 2nd issue is that you have a business that really makes all its money by buying when there is a recession and selling when there are frothy markets. At this point, we have very frothy markets. Anything that needs to be sold probably has been sold, and moving forward, the likelihood of performance improving may be modified lower. This is a kind of company you want to buy during a recession.

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$32.930
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 13, 2017

The overriding issue for them is that it is very much a UK centric story. In the context of a BREXIT, there is likely to be some downside on GDP growth for the UK economy, maybe 5% per year for 4 or 5 years until everything normalizes. Thereafter, there might be some growth. In the interim, you will likely see higher interest rates for banks, but you will see contracting earnings opportunities. You want to look at banks that have UK exposure, but also outside growth. He would suggest looking at HSBC Holdings (HSBC-N) or Banco Santander (SAN-N).

The overriding issue for them is that it is very much a UK centric story. In the context of a BREXIT, there is likely to be some downside on GDP growth for the UK economy, maybe 5% per year for 4 or 5 years until everything normalizes. Thereafter, there might be some growth. In the interim, you will likely see higher interest rates for banks, but you will see contracting earnings opportunities. You want to look at banks that have UK exposure, but also outside growth. He would suggest looking at HSBC Holdings (HSBC-N) or Banco Santander (SAN-N).

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$3.580
Owned
Unknown
WAIT
WAIT
October 13, 2017

The big issue is the litigation story. He believes they are going to court with Apple (AAPL-Q). This involves 6 patents and one company on one side with a huge balance sheet ready to go to war, trying to cut the profitability on a company that they believe have anti-business practices. This is one you just want to stand on the side and wait to see what happens.

Qualcomm (QCOM-Q)
October 13, 2017

The big issue is the litigation story. He believes they are going to court with Apple (AAPL-Q). This involves 6 patents and one company on one side with a huge balance sheet ready to go to war, trying to cut the profitability on a company that they believe have anti-business practices. This is one you just want to stand on the side and wait to see what happens.

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$52.820
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 13, 2017

A company in transition. They did very, very well on the back of the desktop. As desktops became more pervasive, the stock ran up, but the world moved to a more mobile environment, and their ability to take a portion of that revenue has slowed. Great balance sheet and great story, but it is going to go through a transition into an environment where its chips aren’t as expensive. The longer-term story is of much smaller growth. He is a net seller of the semi space at this point. He would suggest Analog Devices (ADI-Q), on a market pullback.

Intel (INTC-Q)
October 13, 2017

A company in transition. They did very, very well on the back of the desktop. As desktops became more pervasive, the stock ran up, but the world moved to a more mobile environment, and their ability to take a portion of that revenue has slowed. Great balance sheet and great story, but it is going to go through a transition into an environment where its chips aren’t as expensive. The longer-term story is of much smaller growth. He is a net seller of the semi space at this point. He would suggest Analog Devices (ADI-Q), on a market pullback.

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$39.670
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 13, 2017

A great story, and he wishes he were there 5 years ago. However, this is a story that is very expensive, and with everything that is binary in terms of high valuation and high growth, at some point when it comes back, it is going to come back very hard. Very high risk.

A great story, and he wishes he were there 5 years ago. However, this is a story that is very expensive, and with everything that is binary in terms of high valuation and high growth, at some point when it comes back, it is going to come back very hard. Very high risk.

Darren Sissons
Vice President and Partner, Campbell Lee & Ross
Price
$0.000
Owned
No