Latest Expert Opinions

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Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 19, 2017

A good oil company. They’ve held up better than others. He would prefer Torque (?) or Spartan (SPE-T) based on valuations. The company just gave an update and are temporarily down in the low $40s, so he wouldn’t be looking for a dividend cut. At $50 oil, total return is probably 13 or 14. His preference would still be to go into some of the Permian guys.

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A good oil company. They’ve held up better than others. He would prefer Torque (?) or Spartan (SPE-T) based on valuations. The company just gave an update and are temporarily down in the low $40s, so he wouldn’t be looking for a dividend cut. At $50 oil, total return is probably 13 or 14. His preference would still be to go into some of the Permian guys.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 19, 2017

Too small and there is too much uncertainty around the prospectivity of their acreage as well as their competitive edge in completion technology, which he thinks they have a 10% interest in.

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Too small and there is too much uncertainty around the prospectivity of their acreage as well as their competitive edge in completion technology, which he thinks they have a 10% interest in.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 19, 2017

Like many service stocks, this has gone down materially. The pro is that the multiple is looking very attractive relative to what he thinks it could do in 2018. The con is that within services there is always a lot of subsectors, and the one with the least pricing power is, he thinks, drilling. Unlike pressure pumping, where equipment is in shortage, he doesn’t see a lot more upside in the day rates for drilling equipment.

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Like many service stocks, this has gone down materially. The pro is that the multiple is looking very attractive relative to what he thinks it could do in 2018. The con is that within services there is always a lot of subsectors, and the one with the least pricing power is, he thinks, drilling. Unlike pressure pumping, where equipment is in shortage, he doesn’t see a lot more upside in the day rates for drilling equipment.

SELL
SELL
July 19, 2017

If you own this, he would Sell it. Get your tax loss and move on to another name which has more upside. Management has clearly struggled for a couple of years to regain investor confidence after several stock issuances, that came with mixed messaging. There is just too much history to see this one outperform.

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If you own this, he would Sell it. Get your tax loss and move on to another name which has more upside. Management has clearly struggled for a couple of years to regain investor confidence after several stock issuances, that came with mixed messaging. There is just too much history to see this one outperform.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 19, 2017

Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)

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Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 19, 2017

The frac sand market is 75 million tons this year, growing to 110 million tons next year, growing to 140 million tons in 2019, equalling 65 million tons of demand growth. Supply growth will be anywhere from 30 million to 40 million. The price insensitivity of producers to an increase in frac sand price means that pricing will go up month after month, quarter after quarter for the next couple of years. This is the best positioned frac sand company. Dividend yield of 0.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $54.25.)

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The frac sand market is 75 million tons this year, growing to 110 million tons next year, growing to 140 million tons in 2019, equalling 65 million tons of demand growth. Supply growth will be anywhere from 30 million to 40 million. The price insensitivity of producers to an increase in frac sand price means that pricing will go up month after month, quarter after quarter for the next couple of years. This is the best positioned frac sand company. Dividend yield of 0.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $54.25.)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 19, 2017

A Permian producer that has been doing a really good job of acquiring acreage, so they issued a ton of paper on to the market. They’ve grown 14% a quarter for the past couple of years. They now get to slow down on that and focus on delineating their acreage, and also going after some new benches. One that they think they have a command of is the Wolf Camp C, and these wells are super, super economic. Have about 70% of their production hedged next year. (Analysts’ price target is $40.)

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Parsley Energy (PE-N)
July 19, 2017

A Permian producer that has been doing a really good job of acquiring acreage, so they issued a ton of paper on to the market. They’ve grown 14% a quarter for the past couple of years. They now get to slow down on that and focus on delineating their acreage, and also going after some new benches. One that they think they have a command of is the Wolf Camp C, and these wells are super, super economic. Have about 70% of their production hedged next year. (Analysts’ price target is $40.)