N/A

Economy. The numbers we are seeing are improving and broadening. The job numbers yesterday were very strong. Unemployment is back around 6.5%. The Canadian economy has probably seen the worst since energy prices started collapsing a couple of years ago. Thinks the economy has now adjusted to low oiler prices for longer on oil. A lot of energy companies have restructured their balance sheets and many have cut their dividends. Oil has probably a model of $45-$55 range. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding what happens to OPEC. There have been some encouraging trade numbers in manufacturing for the last few months. The Cdn$ was quite weak, but has had a bit of a rally with a rate increase. Increases will be very slow and will be based on what the governor sees as data comes out. In her portfolios, she still has about 45% of equities outside of Canada. The US economy is recovering.

COMMENT

Their merger with Potash (POT-T) is expected to close at the end of this quarter. It hasn’t been approved, but she expects it will be. She intends to continue holding this after the merger.

COMMENT

A packaging company that grows through acquisition and integrates quite well. The family was selling some of their B stocks, and probably was just a function of the B shares coming to the market which suppressed the share price a little. Feels the stock is fully valued, and would want to get it in the low $60 area.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Not an industry she typically invests in. The stock has done quite well. If you want to enter the stock, wait for a lower price point.

COMMENT

She likes the Canadian banks, which have pulled back from their highs earlier this year. She anticipates they will increase dividends at the same rate as their earnings growth, in the 7%-8% range. This one is primarily a domestic bank. There is not a lot of growth left in Canada, and this has not had a great track record. When they do expand, they tend to pull back. They paid a very full price for the US acquisition they are making. This wouldn’t be one of her top picks.

COMMENT

Auto parts. She doesn’t own anything in this space. They’ve done a good job of growing the last 20-25 years. Depending on how NAFTA or free trade works out, it could impact their business, and that has kind of served as an overhang on the stock. If she were going to play the space, she would prefer Magna (MG-T), which is more global. They are doing a lot of investing in driverless cars, and have more leverage in Europe and Asia.

COMMENT

Some clients hold this from a couple of years ago, and she hasn’t bought for new clients. She is waiting for energy prices to stabilize and to see a drawdown in inventory. This company is primarily oil, so the share price is going to be dictated by where oil goes. Like many other companies, they cut their dividend in the last downturn. Their balance sheet is in pretty good shape, so if energy stays at these levels and doesn’t fall further, they could probably maintain that dividend. Dividend yield of 4.07%.

BUY

This is a fine company. Feels the dividend is safe. They acquired Spectra, a natural gas transition company in the US. Based on the projects they have and the backlog the sector has, they can increase their dividend 10%-12% through 2024. In a rising rate environment, it is very important to find companies that have an attractive yield. Dividend yield of 4.66%.

COMMENT

A very volatile stock. They get royalty payments on their patents, and are having a dispute with Apple (AAPL-Q). As well as an issue of collecting royalties in other countries such as China. She doesn’t have a high visibility of their earnings and cash flow, so is not looking to enter this one.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 12/16. Up 31.18%.) This is her play on the Internet and digital advertising. When it got close to $1000, she took some money off the table. To buy more, she would like to see it pull back to around $900. A great company in terms of revenue growth. They grew their top line over 20% over the last 29 consecutive quarters. Regarding online advertising, she thinks it still has some growth in terms of overall corporate advertising budget, and this company will garner a large share of that.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 12/16. Up 1.86%.) The stock had gone up to about $7-$8 and then Amazon (AMZN-Q) acquired Whole Foods which impacted all the retailers in the US as well as our Canadian grocers. This is a really attractive entry point. Loblaw’s has a pilot project called “Click and Collect” where you can order online. She also likes Shoppers because of the demographics.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 12/16. Up 14%.) A global appliance manufacturer. 70% of its profits come from North America with the balance from Europe and emerging markets. This is a play on repair/renovations, housing turnover, appliance age. Trading at a pretty attractive multiple. In emerging markets, appliance penetration is much lower than in the US. In China it’s 36% and in India it is below 20%. There is lots of room to grow in those markets.

COMMENT

The stock has done very well and they are in a great sector. There is great growth in e-commerce. As a value-based investor, she doesn’t own the stock. It is a momentum growth stock, and it is hard to justify buying it on fundamental valuation multiples.

SELL

There are some competitive pressures with one of their main drugs, and there is not a lot of visibility for future growth. It is always hard to take losses, but she would get out of this. As an alternative, she would suggest Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N) or Abbott Labs (ABT-N), which are very diversified.

COMMENT

Cenovus Energy (CEV-T) or Algonquin Power (AQN-T) for long-term gains and dividends? All interest sensitive stocks in a rising interest rate environment tend to pull back, especially so in a sharply rising rate environment, which she does not anticipate in Canada. If we get these pullbacks and high-quality utilities, it is a good time to get in. If you want yield, Algonquin Power is definitely the stock to get into. This one is an energy oil sands producer, whose cash flow is going to be largely predicated on what crude oil does.