A zinc producer so it is kind of in the sweet spot for him in that zinc, year-to-date, has been the best performer. Zinc is currently at $1 now, and he sees upside to $1.20. This company has performed as zinc has started to move, and is the cleanest way to play zinc. They just went commercial on their New Brunswick mine, Caribou, which should lead to a ramp up slowly to 140 million pounds, when cash flow starts to get generated. The biggest question for this company is, what’s next. You can own this for 2-3 years and do quite well.
A Mexican gold producer. Recently had a little guidance reduction on concerns of some of the costs. A pretty steady, staid producer of 130,000 ounces. The issue is, where is the next leg of growth. They have a couple of big projects, one in Canada and one in Mexico. Feels they have enough in terms of small expansions to bring on another small project, until they can get their Canadian project permitted and financed. He likes this, because he thought the street was over punitive on the name.
A Short? Faced with a huge expense on a cleanup from the oil spill in Northern Saskatchewan. Like any other disaster, it is always hard to assess what is the ultimate cost. The company has always been regarded as a defensive play because of its refinery, and how that protects differential exposure. He doesn’t Short companies.
Besides Cameco (CCO-T), the 4 main names to own in uranium would be Fission (FCU-T), UEX Corp (UEX-T), Denison (DML-T) and this company, Nexgen. They are in the relevant exploration plays. Fission for the longest time was the “go ahead” name with its Patterson Lake South project of over 100 million pounds and continues to grow. Nexgen has sort of taken the mantle on the West Athabascan side of the basin, which could become a $300-$400 million pound deposit, which brings you to a threshold that starts to possibly make sense.
This has been going through the normal process that all mining companies have been going through, focusing on costs, trying to improve the bottom line in a commodity price environment that looks to be lower for longer. Have had to force themselves to operate more efficiently. There has been a good recovery off the bottom recently, but that is not unusual after having such a disastrous fall off. Recently increased their guidance on coal production and shipments, which was positive. Probably fairly valued, so it comes down to how much more can they do to improve the bottom line.
He tends not to buy a company that is building a mine, but he bought this one because they were close enough to the end and he didn’t expect any CapX surprises. This has a great little asset, a nice simple operation. A low cost operation which generates very strong margins in this kind of environment.
Commodities. The super cycle lasted over a decade. Feels the easy money was made, we have now corrected and the industries have gone through the necessary changes to readjust to the reality of what things are going to look like in a more normalized environment, where supply or demand is not taking off. It is about focusing on companies rather than if a company is going to double this year or whatever the expectation is. It is about what companies can excel in a more normalized environment over the next 5-10 years. Oil really ran ahead of itself a couple of months ago, and Short positions are playing a major role in terms of exasperating the fall, but he wouldn’t consider that as the fundamentals, although it plays a periphery role. For him, the rebalancing has started, and began in the middle of last year as the US supply has been steadily declining. Expects that balance will probably be completed by the middle of next year. $50 is a realistic number to be expected at around the end of this year. He still likes gold companies. Last year, and at the beginning of this year, margins were basically negligible in terms of whether they were really making money. All of a sudden they have gone from something like $50 margin per ounce to $300-$350 margins, so that easily justifies why these stocks have doubled.